Bitcoin, Ethereum Among Five Cryptocurrencies With a History of December Rallies

A deep dive into six years of data reveals a selective "Santa rally" pattern for major digital assets, highlighting the critical role of market cycles and macro sentiment in year-end performance.

Introduction: Unwrapping the Myth of the Crypto Santa Rally

The notion of a "Santa rally"—a sustained uptick in asset prices during the December holiday period—is a well-documented phenomenon in traditional finance. In the cryptocurrency markets, this seasonal pattern often generates significant speculation among investors and traders. Historical analysis from 2019 to 2024 reveals that while a select group of major cryptocurrencies have indeed demonstrated recurring strength in December, these rallies are far from guaranteed. They are intensely selective, clustering predominantly within broader bull or recovery market cycles rather than occurring annually. This article examines the December performance of five prominent cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin (BNB), Litecoin, and Monero—to separate historical trend from seasonal myth. The data underscores that while these assets have delivered notable year-end gains, their success is inextricably linked to the prevailing macroeconomic environment and project-specific developments.

Bitcoin: The Benchmark for Bull-Cycle December Surges

As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin’s performance often sets the tone for the broader digital asset market. Its historical December returns provide a clear illustration of how macro cycles dictate seasonal patterns.

A review of data from 2019 to 2024 shows Bitcoin’s most powerful December rally occurred in 2020, when its price increased by approximately 48%, moving from around $19,700 to $29,000. This surge was part of a historic bull run fueled by institutional adoption narratives and expansive global liquidity. Another solid gain was recorded in December 2023, with Bitcoin adding roughly 12% amid renewed optimism surrounding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States.

Conversely, Bitcoin posted negative returns in other Decembers during this period. It fell about 5% in December 2019, nearly 19% in 2021, around 4% in 2022, and slightly over 3% in 2024. The pattern indicates that Bitcoin’s significant December rallies are primarily features of strong bull or recovery phases. Periods characterized by monetary tightening, late-cycle stress, or bear markets typically do not foster a positive year-end performance for the flagship asset.

An interesting sub-pattern within the data concerns timing around the Christmas holiday. In both 2020 and 2023, the week following Christmas outperformed the week preceding it, suggesting that any "Santa rally" momentum for Bitcoin often materializes after the holiday itself.

Ethereum: Echoing Bitcoin’s Cyclical December Trends

Ethereum, as the leading smart contract platform, generally exhibits a high correlation with Bitcoin’s market cycles, and its December performance history closely mirrors this relationship.

Ethereum’s standout positive Decembers align with Bitcoin’s. In December 2020, ETH climbed about 21%, from approximately $615 to $750. Similarly, during December 2023, Ethereum added roughly 11%, tracking the broader market recovery driven by ETF optimism and improving network activity metrics. These rallies coincided with periods of ample liquidity and heightened risk appetite across financial markets.

However, during bearish or corrective phases, Ethereum’s December performance turned sharply negative. It declined about 15% in December 2019, 20% in 2021, around 8% in 2022, and approximately 8% in 2024. This volatility underscores Ethereum’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. Its December performance appears strongly linked to overall market sentiment; when conditions tighten or risk aversion rises, Ethereum is quick to reflect the shift, often with pronounced moves.

BNB: High-Beta Exchange Token with Dramatic Swings

The performance of Binance Coin (BNB), the native token of the Binance ecosystem, shows some of the most dramatic December swings among the assets analyzed, reflecting its "high-beta" nature relative to broader market sentiment.

BNB recorded explosive rallies during favorable Decembers. It rose about 19% in December 2020 amid sur trading volumes on the Binance exchange during the late stages of that bull run. Its most significant move occurred in December 2023, when BNB jumped roughly 37% from around $228 to $312. This substantial gain followed improving regulatory clarity regarding Binance’s legal settlements and a marked rebound in spot trading volumes.

Mirroring its outsized gains, BNB also experienced heavy December drawdowns during stressful periods. It fell approximately 13% in 2019, 18% in 2021, and another 18% in 2022. The decline in 2022 was particularly influenced by exchange-related fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding industry contagion and regulatory scrutiny. This historical record confirms that BNB’s December performance is highly volatile; its rallies can outpace Bitcoin’s during positive sentiment swings, but its losses are also deeper during periods of market stress or exchange-specific concerns.

Litecoin: The Classic High-Beta Seasonal Play

Litecoin has historically behaved as a leveraged bet on broader market sentiment, often amplified by its "digital silver" narrative relative to Bitcoin’s "digital gold." This characteristic is evident in its December performance history.

Litecoin’s strongest December was in 2020, when LTC surged about 42% from roughly $88 to $125. This move tracked Bitcoin’s concurrent breakout and was further supported by growing payment integration narratives, including PayPal’s rollout of crypto services. However, like other altcoins, Litecoin struggled in subsequent bearish years. It dropped about 13% in December 2019, nearly 30% in 2021, and around 12% in 2022.

Even during less bullish periods, Litecoin showed a capacity for modest year-end gains. It posted increases of about 5% in December 2023 and an estimated 7% in 2024. These smaller positive returns suggest that Litecoin can still benefit from late-year risk-on phases, potentially buoyed by its own halving cycle narratives and its established position as a payments-oriented blockchain.

Monero: Demonstrating Defensive Consistency

Among the five cryptocurrencies analyzed, Monero presents a distinct profile: one of defensive resilience and consistent, albeit often modest, positive December performance.

Monero rose around 15% in December 2020 and roughly 9% in December 2022, a period when many other major coins declined. It also gained about 10% in December 2023, moving from the mid-$160s toward $180. Notably, its drawdowns in other Decembers were relatively mild compared to more mainstream altcoins. This resilience is frequently attributed to steady transactional demand within its specific use case—privacy—which may act as a counter-cyclical driver during periods of heightened regulatory scrutiny or exchange-related fears. Across the observed timeline from 2019 to 2024, Monero avoided extreme December crashes and frequently finished the month higher, marking it as one of the more consistent late-year performers among mid-capitalization cryptocurrencies.

Comparative Analysis: Scale, Role, and Market Relevance

While all five assets have shown potential for December rallies, their market roles and scales differ significantly, influencing their performance drivers.

• Bitcoin remains the benchmark reserve asset and macro proxy for the entire crypto sector. Its rallies set a positive tone that often enables altcoin strength.
• Ethereum acts as the core infrastructure for decentralized finance and Web3. Its performance is tied to both Bitcoin’s movements and network-specific activity metrics like gas fees and Total Value Locked.
• BNB functions primarily as a utility token within the largest centralized exchange ecosystem. Its price is heavily influenced by Binance platform metrics (volume, user growth) and regulatory developments specific to the exchange.
• Litecoin holds a position as a seasoned payments-focused blockchain and is often viewed as a high-beta satellite to Bitcoin.
• Monero occupies a unique niche as a leading privacy coin. Its demand is more specialized and can demonstrate decoupling from general market sentiment during times of regulatory pressure on transparent chains.

In terms of scale and market relevance during rallies, Bitcoin and Ethereum moves are considered foundational for broad market health. BNB’s rallies can signal strength or renewed confidence in the centralized exchange sector. Litecoin and Monero performances are more indicative of niche capital rotations—toward "digital silver" narratives or privacy-focused assets, respectively.

Strategic Conclusion: Context Is King for Seasonal Trends

The historical data from 2019 to 2024 delivers a clear message: while Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Litecoin, and Monero have histories of positive December performance, these "Santa rallies" are selective events contingent on broader market conditions. They cluster decisively in bullish macro environments (like 2020) or clear recovery phases (like 2023). In bear-market or tightening cycles, even these assets have posted significant year-end losses.

For readers and market participants, this analysis suggests several key takeaways:

1. Avoid Guarantees: A positive December is not an annual entitlement for any cryptocurrency. Seasonal patterns exist but are subordinate to macro drivers.
2. Assess the Backdrop: The single most important factor for anticipating a year-end rally is identifying the overarching market cycle—bullish recovery vs. bearish contraction.
3. Diversification of Drivers: Understand what primarily drives each asset (macro liquidity for BTC/ETH, exchange health for BNB, niche demand for XMR) as these drivers interact differently with year-end sentiment.
4. Watch for Catalysts: Project-specific news—such as ETF approvals, regulatory resolutions, or protocol upgrades—can be potent catalysts that align with or override seasonal tendencies.

Moving forward, investors should monitor overarching macroeconomic indicators like central bank policy and institutional inflows alongside project-specific developments. The historical pattern shows that when favorable conditions align, certain cryptocurrencies have indeed provided a festive conclusion to the year. However, relying on calendar-based returns without considering context remains a speculative endeavor. The data affirms that in crypto markets, as in all markets, there is no substitute for rigorous fundamental and cyclical analysis