Monero [XMR] Bulls Face Crucial Test as Buying Pressure Holds Steady

A deep dive into the technical and competitive landscape as Monero's resilience meets a pivotal market moment.

Introduction: A Tale of Relative Strength in a Shifting Market

As the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn in late November 2025, led by Bitcoin's retreat below the $90,000 mark, most assets faced significant selling pressure. Amid this environment, Monero [XMR] presented a nuanced picture. On Sunday, November 30, the premier privacy coin tested a critical resistance level at $440, only to be pushed back by the market-wide slide. From that local peak, XMR's price retraced by 10.6%. Yet, this pullback belies a more compelling narrative of comparative strength. Throughout November, Monero was one of the few relatively large-cap cryptocurrencies pushing toward new highs, registering a 15.8% gain for the month. This performance starkly contrasted with its closest peers, ZCash [ZEC] and Dash [DASH], which fell 22.52% and 15.23%, respectively, over the same period. However, this short-term resilience exists within a longer-term context of more modest gains compared to explosive rallies seen elsewhere in the privacy sector. As XMR bulls work to defend key levels, the coming weeks will test whether this steady buying pressure can catalyze a decisive bullish breakout or succumb to broader market forces.

Analyzing Monero's Bullish Structural Foundation

The Higher Timeframe Perspective: A Story of Breakouts and Targets

A technical analysis of Monero on the weekly chart reveals that the asset's primary trend remains under bullish control. A significant development was the breach of the previous high at $420, an event that technically marks a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. This breakout is a critical factor for traders and analysts monitoring long-term momentum. With this level conquered, the next major target for bulls on the weekly timeframe becomes the April 2021 high of $518. This historical price point represents a substantial psychological and technical barrier that would need to be overcome for a true parabolic move to begin.

Shifting to the daily chart, the bullish swing structure remains intact but shows signs of near-term strain. The chart exhibits what analysts term an "imbalance" or "fair value gap"—represented visually as a white box on price charts—centered around the $360 region. This area often acts as a magnetic pull for price action, suggesting it could be a target for any short-term downward move. Furthermore, the recent rejection at $438, which aligns with the local high established in mid-November, delivered a notable blow to bullish momentum in the near term. This failure to break through has set up a crucial battleground between buyers and sellers.

Deciphering Momentum and Market Mechanics

Indicator Divergence and Liquidation Clues

A multi-timeframe review of key indicators paints a picture of conflicting signals between long-term conviction and short-term indecision. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures buying and selling pressure, showed significant capital inflows on the weekly chart. This suggests strong underlying accumulation from longer-term investors. Conversely, on the daily chart, the CMF reading was more neutral or indecisive, indicating a pause or equilibrium in buying pressure over the shorter term.

This divergence is mirrored in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. The weekly MACD reflected stronger bullish momentum, supporting the breakout narrative. The daily MACD, however, presented a less emphatically bullish picture, aligning with the price's struggle at resistance.

Perhaps one of the most concrete datasets comes from analyzing the liquidation heatmap across exchanges. This map visualizes where large clusters of leveraged long and short positions are placed. Current data indicates that cumulative long liquidation leverage is higher in the zone up to $355 than the short liquidation leverage up to $435. This mechanics-based analysis suggests that a continued price drop toward the $355-$360 region is probable in the short term, as these leveraged long positions could be forcibly closed (liquidated), adding selling pressure. To the upside, a dense cluster of high-leverage short positions sits in the $440-$450 range. A forceful move into this zone could trigger a cascade of short-covering—where traders buying back to close losing bets—potentially fueling a rapid upward spike.

Mapping Potential Price Trajectories for XMR

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios in Focus

Based on the synthesis of technical structure, indicator readings, and liquidation data, two primary scenarios emerge for Monero in the near to medium term.

The bullish scenario hinges on the defense of major historical support levels. The swing lows at $233 and $320 are cited as critical foundations that must hold to maintain the overall bullish market structure identified on higher timeframes. If these levels are defended and buying pressure re-accelerates—potentially fueled by a shift in broader crypto market sentiment—the path toward testing the $440-$450 resistance zone again opens up. A decisive break above this area could trigger the aforementioned short squeeze and set sights on the $518 target.

The bearish or corrective scenario appears more likely in the immediate future according to current signals. The combination of the identified imbalance on the daily chart around $360 and the liquidation map pointing to vulnerability down to $355 suggests a price dip toward the $350-$360 support zone is plausible. From a strategic trading perspective, such a dip could be viewed not as a breakdown but as a potential buying opportunity within a larger bullish trend, offering a more favorable risk/reward entry for swing traders awaiting confirmation of renewed upward momentum.

Monero's Position in the Evolving Privacy Coin Landscape

A Study in Contrasting Performance Narratives

Monero's recent performance cannot be fully assessed without contextualizing it within its competitive niche. The disparity between its short-term and medium-term gains compared to its peers is striking and informs investor perception.

Over the month of November 2025, Monero's 15.8% gain demonstrated clear relative strength against both the general market downturn and its direct competitors. ZCash [ZEC] and Dash [DASH] posted significant double-digit losses in that period. This suggests that during periods of market stress or correction, XMR may be viewed by a segment of investors as a more resilient store of value within the privacy category, potentially due to its established reputation, robust mining network, and fundamental design principles focused on mandatory privacy.

However, zooming out to a longer horizon since September 2025 reveals an entirely different narrative. In that timeframe, ZCash has rallied approximately 760%, dramatically outperforming Monero's more modest 50.3% gain over the same period. This highlights a significant divergence in market driver perception. ZEC's explosive growth may be attributed to specific protocol upgrades, development activity, or speculative narratives unique to its ecosystem that captured trader attention. Meanwhile, Monero's steadier, less volatile ascent reflects its different role—often seen as a foundational, battle-tested privacy asset whose growth is less driven by hype cycles and more by gradual adoption and sustained utility demand.

Strategic Conclusion: Vigilance at an Inflection Point

Monero stands at a technical and fundamental inflection point as 2025 draws to a close. Its demonstrated ability to hold steady against recent market-wide losses underscores a core base of support that continues to differentiate it during periods of uncertainty. The bullish structure on higher timeframes provides a constructive backdrop for potential future appreciation.

However, traders and investors must navigate clear near-term hurdles. The rejection at key resistance and technical indicators pointing toward a likely test of lower support around $355-$360 mean bulls are facing an immediate crucial test. Whether this anticipated dip will represent a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend or morph into a deeper reversal will depend heavily on two factors: first, Monero's ability to find strong buying volume at those lower support levels; and second, a recovery in broader cryptocurrency market sentiment.

For readers monitoring this situation, key levels to watch are $440-$450 as resistance (a break above which could accelerate gains) and $350-$360 as critical support (a breakdown below which could invalidate the near-term bullish structure). Furthermore, observing whether Monero can maintain its relative strength advantage over ZCash and Dash will be telling for its market position within its niche.

Ultimately, while its upside has been limited compared to some peers in recent months, Monero's consistent buying pressure and intact higher-timeframe trends suggest it remains a strategically significant asset in crypto portfolios focused on privacy fundamentals rather than fleeting narratives