XRP Holds $2 Support as Analysts Watch for Wyckoff Pattern Recovery: A Technical Deep Dive

Introduction: XRP Weathers the Storm at a Critical Juncture

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, and XRP, the digital asset associated with Ripple, is currently navigating a pivotal moment. After a sharp 7% decline over a 24-hour period, XRP has found a firm footing above the psychologically and technically significant $2.00 support level. Trading at approximately $2.02 with a substantial daily volume of $3.8 billion, the asset’s price action is under intense scrutiny. While weekly charts show weakness, the ability to hold above this key threshold has analysts turning to classical technical frameworks, most notably the Wyckoff Method, to gauge the potential for a sustained recovery. This article delves into the intricate technical setup, examines the sources of recent selling pressure, and contextualizes XRP’s position within its broader multi-year trend.

Wyckoff Setup Shows Support Still Holding

A primary focus for market technicians is the potential formation of a Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern on XRP’s charts. Popularized by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, this method analyzes supply and demand to identify potential points of accumulation before a significant price advance. Analyst ChartNerd has highlighted that XRP appears to be positioned near the bottom of a multi-month range within what is known as Phase C.

In Wyckoff theory, Phase C is where a final test of supply often occurs. This can involve a "Spring"—a short-lived dip below established support—that shakes out weak holders before a reversal. ChartNerd’s analysis suggests that while XRP faces pressure, the macro structure from the past 12 months of accumulation remains intact as long as key levels hold. The analyst specifically pointed to the $2.05 zone as critical, noting it aligns with candle closes from XRP’s previous all-time highs and wicks from 2021. Furthermore, XRP continues to trade above the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA), which sits at $1.94.

If the pattern validates, the subsequent stages would involve a recovery back into the range, followed by a "Test" and a "Jump Across the Creek," which are classic Wyckoff signals for upward continuation. For now, the pattern remains a possibility contingent on XRP defending its current support floor.

Larger Trend Intact Despite Bearish Pressure

Zooming out from intraday fluctuations provides crucial perspective. A separate analysis by Egrag Crypto breaks down XRP’s position across multiple timeframes. The data reveals that six key charts—including the 4-hour (4H), 1-day (1D), 3-day (3D), 5-day (5D), 1-week (1W), and 2-week (2W)—currently show price trading below their respective 21-period exponential moving averages (EMAs). This multi-timeframe bearish alignment underscores the short-to-medium-term selling pressure.

However, Egrag Crypto emphasizes one critical bullish outlier: the monthly chart. He notes that "there is 1 KING timeframe still bullish… the monthly." This long-term structural integrity forms the foundation of a more optimistic outlook. Based on this monthly chart holding its trend, Egrag Crypto estimates a 55–65% chance of XRP reaching a price target of $13 within the next three to six months. "As long as the monthly holds above this structure, the roadmap toward $9 → $13 remains valid," he stated. This analysis highlights the stark contrast between near-term headwinds and a potentially powerful long-term technical thesis.

Selling Pressure Triggers Liquidations

The recent price drop was not an isolated technical event but was catalyzed by identifiable market activity. Analyst CW reported that significant selling originated from two major cryptocurrency exchanges: Binance and OKX. According to their data, over 11 million XRP was sold in a rapid sequence on these platforms.

This concentrated sell-off had immediate ripple effects across derivatives markets. CW attributed the move to "Chinese whales," whose substantial volume dump triggered large-scale liquidations of long positions. When large sell orders hit the market, they can drive prices down rapidly, forcing leveraged traders who bet on price increases (long positions) to be automatically closed out by exchanges, exacerbating the downward move.

This volatility also coincides with the launch and performance of several XRP-linked Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Similar to patterns observed after other major ETF launches in crypto, initial strong demand has been followed by a period of price consolidation or pullback. Despite this, data shows these investment vehicles have garnered significant interest. Four ETFs tied to XRP have collectively seen over $660 million in net inflows, with the largest fund, XRPC, accounting for more than $340 million of that total.

Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with a Technical Roadmap

XRP finds itself at a familiar crossroads where short-term volatility clashes with long-term technical narratives. The defense of the $2.00 - $2.05 support zone, backed by historical price action and the 20-month EMA, is the immediate battle for bulls. The developing Wyckoff pattern offers a structured framework for what a recovery might look like, though it remains conditional and unconfirmed.

The market is clearly experiencing friction from large-scale spot selling and derivative liquidations, reminding investors of the asset's inherent volatility even amid positive developments like substantial ETF inflows. The divergent signals across timeframes—bearish on shorter charts yet bullish on the monthly—create a complex landscape.

For readers and investors monitoring XRP, the path forward requires watching specific levels:

• On Support: A sustained break and close below $1.94 (the 20-month EMA) could invalidate much of the positive macro structure discussed by analysts.
• On Resistance: For bullish momentum to return convincingly, reclaiming higher timeframe EMAs (like the 21 EMA on daily and weekly charts) and breaking above recent range highs near $2.21 will be key.
• On Context: Continued monitoring of exchange flow data and ETF inflow/outflow figures will provide clues about institutional and large-holder sentiment.

Ultimately, while analysts like Egrag Crypto outline ambitious long-term targets, the current phase is one of consolidation and testing. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether XRP uses this $2 support as a springboard for its next major move or succumbs to broader market pressures. In either case, understanding these technical layers provides a more informed lens through which to view the price action ahead.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.