SEO-Optimized Headline: Zcash Price Plunges 21%: Can Key Support Hold After a Staggering 780% Quarterly Rally?

Meta Description: Zcash (ZEC) has plummeted 21% in 24 hours, testing a critical trendline after a historic 780% quarterly surge. Our analysis dives into the fading sell signals, shifting Bitcoin correlation, and the precise price levels that will determine ZEC's next major move.

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Introduction: A Dramatic Reversal Tests Zcash's Mettle

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, but the recent price action of Zcash (ZEC) presents a stark tale of explosive gains meeting intense selling pressure. In a dramatic 24-hour reversal, the privacy-focused cryptocurrency has plunged approximately 21%, extending its seven-day loss to nearly 33%. This sharp correction has flipped the monthly trend negative, casting a shadow over what has been an otherwise historic quarter. Despite the recent downturn, Zcash’s broader three-month performance remains astonishingly positive, with gains still sitting above 780%. This figure underscores the sheer magnitude of the preceding rally and sets the stage for a critical technical battle. Currently, ZEC price is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has guided its every major move since September. This trendline represents the last bastion of support for the long-term uptrend. While key momentum indicators hint at potential exhaustion among sellers, the immediate future of Zcash hinges entirely on its ability to defend this crucial level.

Momentum Weakens, but Pressure May Be Easing

Beneath the surface of the sharp price decline, two key on-chain and technical metrics suggest the wave of selling may be losing its intensity. The first clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale of 0 to 100. A notable development occurred between September 27 and December 1: while the price of ZEC formed a higher low, the RSI formed a lower low. This pattern is known as a hidden bullish divergence and often emerges near potential exhaustion points in a downtrend. Currently, the RSI is approaching oversold territory. The last instance where the RSI reached similarly depressed levels—around August 19—preceded the start of a significant upward leg for ZEC.

The second encouraging signal originates from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). This indicator tracks whether money flow is entering or exiting an asset by incorporating both price and volume data, providing insight into the behavior of larger market participants. The CMF for Zcash had been in a consistent decline since November 6, a period that aligned with the start of the sharp price correction. It dipped below zero on November 24 for the first time since late October, confirming heavier selling pressure. However, the CMF has now curled upward and is trending back toward the zero line. More importantly, between November 27 and December 1, a minor divergence appeared: the price made a lower high while the CMF made a higher high. When CMF begins to turn upward as price falls, it can indicate that institutional or large-scale buyers are quietly accumulating positions, potentially setting the stage for a momentum reversal.

Correlation Shift and Key Zcash Price Levels That Decide the Trend

A significant factor in Zcash’s impressive quarterly outperformance was its historically weak correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). Over the past year, the BTC-ZEC correlation coefficient has hovered near -0.05, meaning ZEC often moved independently or even inversely to Bitcoin’s price action. This decoupling allowed Zcash to rally powerfully during periods of Bitcoin weakness. However, this dynamic has shifted notably in the very short term. Over the past seven days, the correlation has turned mildly positive, registering at 0.48. While this is still weaker than correlations seen with many other major altcoins, it indicates that Bitcoin’s recent downturn has exerted more direct downward pressure on ZEC than was typical during its rally phase.

This renewed correlation amplifies the importance of specific technical price levels for Zcash. The most immediate and critical level is $348. This price represents the lower boundary of the long-standing ascending channel. A daily close below $348 would constitute a decisive break of this primary trendline, invalidating the bullish channel structure and likely triggering a deeper sell-off toward the next significant support at $309. Should that level fail to hold, attention would turn to $230, a zone where robust buyer interest was previously demonstrated during earlier market phases.

The bearish scenario was echoed by prominent Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser, who stated on November 28, 2025: “The $ZEC ‘pump ‘n dump’ is over. A trip back to $55 looks inevitable.” Conversely, for Zcash to reassert its bullish narrative and regain upward strength, it must reclaim $592. This price point aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level—a common technical target—and would require a rebound of approximately 63.9% from current levels. Such a move, while substantial, is not unprecedented given ZEC’s history of pronounced volatility.

Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty at a Pivotal Juncture

Zcash stands at a definitive crossroads, caught between the powerful tailwinds of a historic quarterly rally and the severe headwinds of a sharp corrective plunge. The recent 21% drop serves as a potent reminder of crypto market volatility, even for assets demonstrating remarkable strength. The analysis presents a balanced technical picture: while sell-side momentum may be waning as suggested by RSI divergence and an improving CMF, these are secondary signals entirely dependent on primary support holding firm.

The immediate trajectory for ZEC is binary and hinges on the $348 support level. A successful defense of this level within the ascending channel could provide a foundation for consolidation and a potential rebound, especially if its longer-term negative correlation with Bitcoin reasserts itself. However, a confirmed breakdown opens a clear path toward lower supports at $309 and $230.

For readers and market participants, vigilance is key in the coming sessions. Monitoring daily closes relative to $348 is paramount. Additionally, watching for a sustained rise in CMF above zero and any reversion in ZEC’s correlation with Bitcoin back toward negative territory will provide crucial context for momentum shifts. Regardless of short-term price action, Zcash’s dramatic journey—a 780% quarterly rally followed by a severe test of its gains—highlights both the high-reward potential and inherent risk within the altcoin landscape. All market moves should be approached with rigorous research and appropriate risk management strategies.

Disclaimer: In line with Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.