Bitcoin's Monthly MACD Turns Negative, Signaling Potential Volatility Ahead
A key technical indicator on Bitcoin's monthly chart has flashed a bearish signal for the first time since the last major market downturn, historically a precursor to significant price declines and heightened market turbulence.
Introduction: A Historical Warning Signal Flashes Red
In November 2025, Bitcoin’s price fell by over 17%, culminating in a significant technical development that has historically spelled trouble for bullish investors. The monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a widely watched momentum indicator, printed its first red bar below the zero line. This confirms a bullish-to-bearish trend change on the primary timeframe, signaling that the bull run which began around the $20,000 mark early in November has likely ended, with bears taking control of the market narrative.
This development is not to be taken lightly. According to analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole, this specific signal has preceded the start of prolonged Bitcoin downturns in every major cycle since 2012. While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, the emergence of this pattern amidst a complex macro backdrop demands heightened vigilance from traders and investors for potential downside volatility in the weeks and months ahead.
Understanding the Monthly MACD: A Primer on Momentum
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. On a monthly chart, it smooths out short-term noise to reveal the underlying long-term trend. The histogram component, which just turned negative, visualizes the difference between the MACD line and its signal line. A bar printing below the zero line indicates that bearish momentum is now dominant on this long-term timeframe.
The monthly chart's significance cannot be overstated. Signals on this scale are rare and reflect sustained shifts in market structure, not daily or weekly fluctuations. A negative flip here suggests that the selling pressure witnessed in November was not a mere correction but potentially a fundamental change in market posture. The first key support level to watch is near $84,500, defined by the trendline connecting the higher lows of 2023-2024. A decisive break below this level could expose deeper supports at April 2025's low of around $74,500 and the psychologically significant 2021 peak near $70,000.
Historical Precedents: When the MACD Red Bar Meant Red Portfolios
History provides a sobering context for the current signal. Following Bitcoin's correction from approximately $70,000 to $50,000 in late 2021, the monthly MACD histogram turned bearish in January 2022. This was not a false alarm; it signaled the continuation of a downtrend that ultimately saw prices collapse below $20,000.
This pattern has repeated itself. Similar bearish MACD crossovers occurred in both 2018 and 2014, with each signal preceding a deepening of the existing bear market. In each instance, the shift marked not just a temporary pullback but the establishment of a prolonged downtrend where rallies were sold into and lower lows were established. The consistency of this indicator in marking major cyclical tops adds considerable weight to its current warning.
The Current Macro Backdrop: Reinforcing the Technical Warning
While technical analysis can sometimes operate in a vacuum, the current macroeconomic environment appears to reinforce the bearish signal from the charts. Several risk factors are converging:
- Japan's Fiscal Strain: Concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability are creating ripples in global financial markets.
- Resilient Dollar and Yields: Despite ongoing talks of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields have remained resilient, maintaining pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
- ETF Outflows: Recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate a cooling of institutional demand that had previously provided a strong foundation for the bull market.
This combination of technical deterioration and macro headwinds creates an environment where downside volatility becomes a more probable outcome. The message for traders is straightforward: risk management is paramount.
Ether's Confluence: The "Death Cross" Emerges
Bitcoin is not alone in showing concerning technical damage. Ether (ETH) has confirmed a so-called "death cross" on its daily charts—a bearish pattern marked by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below the 200-day SMA. This signals that the short-term trend is underperforming the long-term trajectory, with the potential to evolve into a full-blown bear market.
It is crucial to note that while the term "death cross" sounds ominous, its track record as a reliable standalone indicator in the Ether market has been mixed. It can sometimes mark a capitulation point rather than a continuation signal. However, when it occurs concurrently with Bitcoin's monthly MACD turning negative, it paints a broader picture of weakness across the crypto market's two largest assets, suggesting sector-wide caution is warranted.
Market Fallout: Liquidations Highlight Fragile Leverage
The immediate market reaction to these deteriorating conditions has been severe. In recent trading sessions, crypto markets experienced significant forced liquidations, wiping out nearly $646 million in leveraged positions according to related data. Major exchanges including Binance, Hyperliquid, and Bybit each saw over $160 million in liquidations, with long positions making up almost 90% of the total carnage.
This liquidation event underscores the fragility built into the market during periods of high leverage. As prices fell sharply—with Bitcoin dropping over 5% and Ether over 6% in one session—a cascade of margin calls exacerbated the downward move. This serves as a real-time example of the "downside volatility" warned of by the monthly MACD shift.
Broader Ecosystem Context: Security Amidst Volatility
In times of potential market stress and increased volatility, other segments of the crypto ecosystem see shifting attention. Security infrastructure becomes even more critical as users navigate turbulent markets. For context, projects like GoPlus Security provide essential tools for user safety.
According to a Protocol Research report from November 14, 2025:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus had generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines.
- Its GoPlus App was the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approximately 53%), followed by its SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025.
- Since its January 2025 launch ,the $GPS token registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025.
While not directly correlated to Bitcoin's price action, the scale and usage of such security platforms highlight areas of continued development and utility within crypto, irrespective of short-term market cycles.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating the Signal
The negative turn in Bitcoin's monthly MACD histogram is a significant technical event backed by historical precedent and a challenging macro environment. It signals a high-probability period of increased downside volatility and suggests that the bullish trend has been invalidated on a long-term basis.
For readers and market participants:
- Prioritize Risk Management: This is not a time for maximum leverage or unwavering conviction longs. Defensive positioning, careful position sizing, and defined stop-loss levels are essential.
- Watch Key Levels: Monitor the identified support levels near $84,500, $74,500, and $70,000 for Bitcoin. Breaches could accelerate selling pressure.
- Look for Confluence: Pay attention to whether macro conditions worsen or improve and if ETF flows reverse course. A stabilization in these areas could help mitigate purely technical downside.
- Maintain Perspective: Even major bear markets contain powerful counter-trend rallies. However, until this monthly MACD signal resets—a process that can take many months—the path of least resistance appears lower.
The coming months will test investor resolve and strategy. While indicators like these do not dictate an inevitable crash—and reversals are always possible—they provide a crucial data point for aligning one’s portfolio with the prevailing wind rather than sailing against it.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with assistance from AI tools and reviewed by an editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to professional standards.