Monad Plummets 47% in Four Days, Echoing Pi Coin’s Post-Launch Collapse: A Technical Breakdown
Introduction: A Familiar Pattern of Post-Launch Decline
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a stark case of déjà vu as Monad (MON), a new layer-1 blockchain project, experiences a severe price correction immediately after its listing. In a mere four days, the Monad price has plummeted over 47% from its post-listing high. This dramatic downturn mirrors the early trading action of Pi Coin (PI), another layer-1 project that captivated the market upon its launch. Both assets exhibited a rapid launch spike followed by an immediate and sharp downside slide, raising questions about the sustainability of new token launches in current market conditions. This analysis delves into the technical parallels between the two projects, examines the weakening internal metrics of Monad, and outlines the critical price levels that could determine its near-term trajectory.
Monad Mirrors Pi Coin’s Early Post-Listing Slide
The historical precedent set by Pi Coin provides a sobering context for Monad’s current performance. Pi Coin lost 86.57% of its value within the first six weeks after its listing and is now down more than 91% from its post-launch high. Monad has followed a similar opening path, dropping 47.57% from its peak in only four days.
Both charts show the same early traits:
- A fast launch spike
- A deeper correction almost immediately
The key difference lies in the broader market backdrop. Pi Coin launched during a stronger crypto environment earlier this year. Despite this advantage, it could not recover even half of its losses despite Bitcoin (BTC) hitting new highs in early October. Monad, conversely, is entering a weaker market where liquidity is thin and large assets are struggling to hold momentum. This suggests the odds for a swift recovery are certainly not in Monad's favor.
Supply Strength Weakens As Large Money Flow Drops
A deeper look into Monad’s on-chain and momentum indicators reveals a weakening internal structure, primarily driven by the behavior of large-scale investors. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether bigger buyers are injecting capital into or withdrawing it from an asset, provides the first critical signal.
After the initial post-launch volatility subsided near the end of October—the point at which CMF became usable—the money-flow line has moved only one way: down. Since October 27, CMF has dropped by more than 270% and has remained below zero for most of the decline. A CMF reading below zero indicates that larger buyers are stepping aside and not providing support. MON’s CMF is now sitting close to its lowest reading since the token went live, signaling that confidence from deep-pocketed investors has not returned.
This pattern closely mirrors what Pi Coin exhibited in its first twenty days. Its CMF collapsed by almost 330% early on, and the price drifted lower for weeks thereafter.
The second problem for Monad appears in the Bull-Bear Power (BBP) reading. This metric measures whether buyers or sellers have more control of momentum. With BBP leaning heavily negative while CMF continues to make new lows, even short-term price recoveries tend to be short-lived. Taken together, these indicators show that Monad is not yet attracting strong bidding interest, and buyers remain hesitant.
How Low Can Monad Price Go If The Slide Continues?
With money flow weakening and sellers in full control, the focus shifts to Monad's direct price structure. The short-term trend on the 4-hour Monad price chart has pointed down since November 26, with price action respecting that downward slope without any meaningful reversal.
In this bearish phase, the chart acts as an extension map where each failed bounce brings the next support level into focus. The immediate level to watch is $0.026. If Monad loses this support, the slide could extend toward $0.023, which is the next clear continuation level on the trend-based extension. Should momentum remain weak and money flow continue to decline, a deeper projection toward $0.013 remains a possibility.
These levels may seem distant, but the similarity to Pi Coin’s post-launch structure is hard to ignore. For any recovery attempt to gain credibility, it must start with a move back above $0.029. This would only serve to stabilize the current structure. A genuine shift in momentum would only appear if Monad manages to close above $0.039 and then $0.040.
A push above those resistance bands would break the current downward slope, help rebuild investor confidence, and begin to weaken the comparison with Pi Coin’s early chart trajectory.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Volatility in New Token Launches
The parallel between Monad and Pi Coin serves as a critical case study for investors in new layer-1 blockchain projects. For now, Monad trades below all key resistance marks, with money flow indicators near their lows and momentum firmly held by sellers. Unless these two conditions reverse—specifically, a return of large-money inflows and a shift in bull-bear power—the path of least resistance remains downward, and the comparison with Pi Coin's collapse stays relevant.
For crypto readers and traders, this situation underscores the importance of looking beyond initial launch hype. Monitoring on-chain metrics like CMF and momentum indicators like BBP can provide early warnings of weakening internal strength, even if price action appears volatile but range-bound. The immediate factors to watch for Monad are a sustained break below $0.026 for further downside risk or a decisive reclaim of $0.029 as a first sign of stabilization. In a market where liquidity is thin, new tokens face an uphill battle, making technical diligence more crucial than ever.
Disclaimer: In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.