CryptoQuant CEO Reveals: Ethereum 59% Undervalued Despite ETF Hype and $3K Price Stagnation
Introduction
As Ethereum consolidates near the $3,000 mark in the final week of November 2025, a stark divergence has emerged between its current market price and its perceived intrinsic value. Despite a 15% recovery from a recent low of $2,600, ETH remains a staggering 40% below its all-time high of $4,900, recorded just three months prior in August. Amidst this price action, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has presented a compelling data-driven case that the world’s leading altcoin is significantly undervalued. His analysis, based on a suite of proprietary valuation models, cuts through the prevailing market sentiment and ETF-related narratives to suggest that Ethereum’s fundamentals point toward a substantially higher price target, even as legacy holders begin to take profits. This article delves into the quantitative models, historical patterns, and emerging catalysts that paint a complex but optimistic picture for Ethereum's trajectory.
CryptoQuant’s Valuation Models: A Overwhelming Consensus of Undervaluation
According to Ki Young Ju’s analysis, the data presents a clear, though not unanimous, verdict on Ethereum's value. “10 out of 12 Ethereum valuation models say ETH is undervalued,” he stated. This overwhelming majority points to a significant disconnect between Ethereum's market price and its fundamental metrics.
The cornerstone of this analysis is the Composite Fair Value, a median value derived from the twelve individual models. At the time of the report, this composite indicator set an average price target of $4,800 for Ethereum. When compared to the prevailing price near $3,000, this target suggests that ETH is approximately 59% undervalued. This model serves as a crucial benchmark, aggregating various on-chain and financial metrics to provide a holistic view of Ethereum's worth beyond daily price fluctuations.
However, a responsible analysis must also account for dissenting data. CryptoQuant’s report highlighted that two specific metrics contradicted the broader bullish consensus. The P/S Ratio Multiple and the Revenue Yield model both indicated that Ethereum was overvalued at its current level, suggesting fair values of $820 and $1,200, respectively. These models, which assess the network's revenue generation relative to its market capitalization, introduce a note of caution, reminding investors that valuation is not a monolithic science and different methodologies can yield vastly different results.
The Realized Price: A Historical Support Level Hinting at a Local Bottom
Beyond the valuation models, another critical on-chain metric aligns with the "undervalued" thesis: the Realized Price. This metric calculates the average price at which all coins in circulation were last moved, effectively representing the aggregate cost basis or break-even point for the majority of market participants. It is a powerful indicator of crowd psychology and has historically acted as a robust support level during bear markets.
CryptoQuant’s data shows that since 2019, Ethereum’s price has consistently found a floor at or near its realized price. The recent touch of this level is a significant development. According to their assessment, "if history repeats itself, the ‘local bottom’ could be in, and an extended recovery could be likely." This pattern suggests that the market has weeded out a substantial portion of weak hands, and the asset is now trading at a level deemed fair by its long-term holders. The bounce from this level provides a technical and on-chain foundation for the potential recovery flagged by the Composite Fair Value model.
ETF Flows: The Double-Edged Sword for Ethereum’s Price
The approval and subsequent launch of spot Ethereum ETFs were a watershed moment for the asset class, directly injecting institutional capital into the market. The data underscores their profound impact: between April and October 2025, these products recorded massive inflows of approximately $12 billion. This unprecedented institutional demand was a primary driver behind Ethereum’s meteoric rise, tripling its price to nearly $5,000.
However, the narrative shifted in the following months. As initial euphoria waned, ETF flows tapered and eventually reversed. A net outflow of $3 billion from these products over two months exerted significant selling pressure, dragging the price back below the $3,000 support level. This demonstrates the newfound correlation between institutional flow data and ETH's spot price, a dynamic previously established with Bitcoin.
The most recent data point offers a glimmer of hope. At press time, institutional inflows had shown signs of a slight recovery. If this trend continues into December, it could provide the sustained buying pressure needed to fuel a more robust ETH rebound, acting as a counterbalance to other forms of selling pressure.
The Fusaka Upgrade: A Potential Bullish Catalyst for Network Economics
Scheduled for activation on December 3rd, the Fusaka upgrade represents another fundamental development with potentially bullish implications for Ethereum's value. This network upgrade is designed to increase the gas limits per block, allowing the network to handle more transactions simultaneously.
The direct consequence of this change is an acceleration of Ethereum's fee-burning mechanism, introduced in EIP-1559. With more transactions per block, more ETH in transaction fees is permanently removed from circulation. As analyst Joseph Young noted, this will "make ETH deflationary and improve value accrual." By systematically reducing supply amid steady or growing demand, the Fusaka upgrade directly enhances Ethereum's economic model, making it a more compelling long-term store of value.
The ICO-Era Whale Exodus: A Cap on Recovery
While fundamentals and upgrades paint a promising picture, on-chain data also reveals significant headwinds. A notable example is the activity of an ICO-era whale who cashed out $120 million in ETH. These original participants acquired their holdings at prices far below current levels, making them highly susceptible to profit-taking during recoveries.
This event highlights a persistent overhang on the market. If profit-booking from these early players continues at scale, it could effectively cap the upside of any recovery. Each large sell order from a whale adds substantial selling pressure that can absorb institutional inflows and dampen bullish momentum. This dynamic creates a tug-of-war between long-term fundamental value and short-term profit realization.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Undervaluation Amidst Conflicting Signals
The current state of Ethereum presents a landscape defined by compelling opportunities tempered by tangible risks. The core takeaway from CryptoQuant’s analysis is powerful: according to key models and historical support levels, Ethereum appears fundamentally undervalued by as much as 59%, with signs pointing to a potential local bottom.
The path forward, however, is not linear. Investors should monitor several key factors:
- Institutional Flows: The direction and magnitude of ETF inflows will be a primary short-term price driver. A sustained return to positive flows is likely necessary for a significant breach above current resistance levels.
- Network Health Post-Fusaka: The successful implementation of the Fusaka upgrade and its subsequent impact on ETH burn rate and network activity will be critical for validating the improved value accrual narrative.
- On-Chain Selling Pressure: Watch for continued distribution from long-term holders. A decrease in large whale movements to exchanges would signal reduced immediate selling pressure.
For crypto readers and investors, the present moment demands a focus on data over sentiment. While hype around ETFs and upgrades can drive volatility, it is the underlying fundamentals—as quantified by metrics like the Composite Fair Value and Realized Price—that suggest a strong foundation for future growth. The market's task is now to reconcile this deep-seated value with the ongoing reality of profit-taking from its earliest supporters.