XRP Price Faces Key Resistance as ETF Inflows Rise and Long-Term Holders Sell: December’s Defining Battle
Introduction: A Pivotal Moment for XRP
XRP enters December 2025 at a critical technical and fundamental crossroads. After a weak November that saw the token’s price decline by nearly 13%, its trajectory for the final month of the year hangs in the balance. The token is currently grappling with significant resistance near $2.460, a level that has repeatedly capped upward movements. This struggle occurs against a backdrop of conflicting signals: substantial inflows into XRP-related Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) provide a strong tailwind, while persistent selling from long-term holders acts as a powerful headwind. This analysis delves into the seasonal trends, on-chain data, and key price levels that will determine whether XRP can achieve a bullish breakout or succumb to broader market pressures.
December History and ETF Momentum for XRP: A Mixed Bag?
At first glance, historical data suggests December could be a strong month for XRP, showing an average gain of about 69.6%. However, this figure is heavily skewed by an anomalous +818% surge in 2017. A more telling metric is the median return of –3.16%, which paints a less optimistic picture. Recent performance offers a more realistic baseline, with December gains of 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.
This historical context makes November 2025's nearly 13% decline particularly relevant, casting doubt on the persistence of any positive December seasonality. However, a new variable has entered the equation: institutional demand via ETFs.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, believes this December could behave differently. He told BeInCrypto, “December is likely to look very different for XRP this year, mainly because institutional demand has now arrived… XRP enters the month on the back of the momentum generated from the ETF buzz, which has attracted substantial institutional interest and capital from the outset.”
This institutional interest is quantifiable. Youssef noted that XRP is already on a multi-day ETF inflow streak totaling more than $640 million, stating, “ETF inflow sustainability will now likely be the major tailwind for XRP’s price action in December.” Despite this optimism, he remains cautious, warning, “If the broader market environment weakens further and ETF flows reverse, XRP will likely follow BTC and ETH movements and retest $2.”
The interplay between inflated historical averages and fresh ETF momentum indicates that XRP’s performance in December is not reliant on seasonality alone but is heavily dependent on the continuity of institutional demand.
On-Chain Signals Aren’t The Most Bullish
While ETF flows provide a bullish narrative, on-chain data reveals a less supportive underlying dynamic. A key concern is the behavior of long-term holders. Data from HODL Waves, which tracks supply distribution across different holding periods, shows that cohorts holding XRP for 1–3 years are reducing their balances.
Specifically, over the past month, the supply held by the 1–2 year cohort dropped from 9.72% to 8.516%, while the 2–3 year cohort decreased from 14.80% to 14.251%. While these percentage changes may appear small, they are significant because these groups control a substantial portion of the circulating supply. Their distribution activity creates persistent selling pressure that undermines upward price movements.
Ray Youssef also highlighted this risk, stating, “Long-term holders still control a disproportionate share of the circulating supply… XRP can record substantial gains in December only if institutional demand remains strong enough to offset any selling pressure from long-term holders.”
The challenge posed by this selling pressure is compounded by data from the cost basis heatmap. This metric identifies price levels where large amounts of XRP were previously acquired, often creating significant support or resistance zones. The heatmap shows the strongest supply cluster is between $2.445 and $2.460, where approximately 1.749 billion XRP resides. This concentration of supply aligns perfectly with the current resistance level, creating a formidable barrier that any bullish move must overcome.
In summary, the combination of distribution by long-term holders and a massive cost-basis cluster at a key resistance level explains why XRP requires a significant catalyst to build sustainable momentum in December.
XRP Price in December: Key Levels and The Most Realistic Scenario
From a technical perspective, the XRP price is trading near $2.196, positioned just above its second rebound from the $1.772 support level. This price action has formed a double-bottom structure—a potential reversal pattern characterized by two distinct lows in October and late November.
This pattern suggests a short-term recovery attempt is plausible. For this attempt to evolve into a sustained uptrend, XRP must first clear the immediate resistance at $2.307 and then achieve a decisive daily close above the key breakout level of $2.459. This crucial level is not arbitrary; it is precisely where the heavy cost-basis cluster identified in the on-chain data resides.
A clean daily close above $2.459 would unlock the next significant target zone near $2.612. This area converges with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and aligns with Ray Youssef’s projected target. As he stated, “A more realistic target for December is $2.60. A clear breakout above $2.60 would be the first firm indication of a bullish shift.”
Therefore, both technical analysis and fundamental commentary point to the $2.60–$2.61 range as the primary bullish objective for December.
Conversely, the risk scenario remains firmly in play. The market is highly interconnected, and XRP’s fate is not isolated. Youssef noted, “If BTC and ETH experience another downturn in December, XRP will likely follow suit.” Should ETF flows weaken and a broader market pullback occur, the key support level to watch is $2.119. A daily close below this level would expose the major support at $1.772—the bottom of the recent double-bottom pattern.
Strategic Conclusion: Two Paths Forward
XRP stands at a definitive inflection point as December unfolds. The path it takes will be determined by the outcome of a direct contest between powerful opposing forces.
On one side, sustained and growing ETF inflows represent unprecedented institutional demand that could provide the necessary buying pressure to absorb selling from long-term holders and break through the formidable resistance at $2.459. A successful breach of this level would open a clear path toward the $2.60–$2.61 target zone, signaling a definitive bullish shift.
On the other side, should ETF flows stall or reverse—particularly in an environment where Bitcoin and Ethereum face downward pressure—XRP lacks sufficient independent momentum to resist a broader market decline. In this scenario, it would likely retest lower supports, beginning with $2.119 and potentially revisiting $1.772.
For traders and investors, December requires vigilant monitoring of two primary datasets: daily ETF flow figures and Bitcoin’s market direction. The sustainability of institutional demand is no longer a secondary factor but the central variable that will dictate whether XRP can overcome its on-chain hurdles and historical ambiguities to forge a独立 bullish path or remain tethered to the broader crypto market's volatility.
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.