Bitcoin Stalls at $91K Despite Surging Fed Rate-Cut Bets: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics
Introduction
In a perplexing divergence from traditional market logic, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to reclaim the $93,000 threshold despite a potent cocktail of bullish macroeconomic signals. As the S&P 500 trades a mere 1% below its all-time high and gold prices surge, the world's premier cryptocurrency appears to be marching to its own drum. This stall comes even as bond market futures, via the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, now assign an 87% probability to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on December 10, a significant jump from 71% just a week prior. The catalyst for this dovish shift is emerging weakness in the U.S. labor market, with the Labor Department reporting continuing claims climbing to 1.96 million. Yet, for Bitcoin, this seemingly ideal scenario of impending monetary easing is being counteracted by stagnant ETF inflows, cautious derivatives sentiment, and notable whale activity, leaving traders to ponder what will finally ignite sustainable bullish momentum.
Stagnant ETF Flows and Corporate Hesitation Capping Gains
A primary factor behind Bitcoin's inability to break higher lies in the lukewarm activity from institutional vehicles. Data for the week ending November 28 revealed that U.S. Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) registered a net inflow of only $70 million. This tepid figure indicates a pause in the robust institutional demand that has previously propelled prices.
Compounding this issue is a discernible hesitation from corporate entities known for holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. According to CoinGlass data, none of the major companies that use Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset have expanded their holdings over the past two weeks. MicroStrategy, the most prominent corporate holder, last added to its treasury on November 17. More notably, on Thursday, November 27, blockchain analytics firm Nansen reported that SpaceX moved 1,163 BTC (worth approximately $102 million at the time) to two new addresses. While this could signify a routine custodian change, the lack of an official statement from Elon Musk's privately held aerospace company has fueled market speculation about a potential sale, injecting a note of caution.
Derivatives Data Points to a Cautiously Neutral Market
The sentiment in Bitcoin's derivatives markets further elucidates the current stalemate. Despite recent price weakness, the data reflects a market that is not panicked but is decidedly cautious about taking on excessive bullish leverage.
Futures Market Indifference: The Bitcoin monthly futures basis rate—the annualized premium of futures contracts over the spot price—held steady at 4% as of Saturday, unchanged from the previous week. In neutral market conditions, this premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% to account for carrying costs. The current rate, lingering below this range, signals a distinct lack of appetite for leveraged long positions. This reluctance is likely a lingering effect of Bitcoin's 18% price pullback over the preceding 30 days, reminding traders of the market's volatility.
Options Market Uncertainty: A deeper look into options markets provides a clearer gauge of whale and market maker sentiment. Bearish phases are often characterized by increased demand for put (sell) options relative to call (buy) options. Data from Deribit, analyzed by Laevitas.ch, showed that volumes on put options far exceeded those on call instruments during Thursday and Friday trading sessions. Analysts suggest that a more neutral-to-bullish market would require the put-to-call premium volume ratio to be at 1.3x or below. While the current levels are well off the extreme 5x peak favoring downside protection seen on November 21, the sustained elevation indicates that professional traders are still actively hedging against potential downside risk.
Macro Tailwinds: Fed Bets, Trump Tax Plans, and AI Relief
The broader financial landscape presents a paradox for Bitcoin, as several powerful tailwinds have failed to translate into upward price action.
The most significant development is the sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy. The jump in rate-cut probabilities from 71% to 87% was primarily driven by the softening U.S. job market data. Investors interpret such weakness as a compelling reason for the central bank to adopt a more expansionary monetary policy, which historically benefits scarce, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin by increasing system-wide liquidity.
Simultaneously, during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, President Donald Trump reiterated plans to enact substantial income tax cuts, citing anticipated revenue from import tariffs. This prospect has led investors to conclude that government debt will face continued upward pressure—a macroeconomic backdrop that typically supports hard and scarce assets. This dynamic was visibly at play in other markets: gold gained 3.8% over the week, and silver surged to a new all-time high.
In the equity sphere, concerns around the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom were alleviated by a breakthrough from Google. The company's custom Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) enabled its Gemini AI to top performance benchmarks while using far less energy than competing GPU-based systems. This news boosted investor confidence in the sector's growth trajectory without an exorbitant energy cost, leading to a 6.8% weekly gain for Alphabet (GOOG) and helping to stabilize the outlook for tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA).
Bitcoin’s Decoupling from Tech Stocks and Path Forward
A critical observation from this period is Bitcoin's evolving correlation with other risk assets. The S&P 500's proximity to record highs did not pull Bitcoin along with it, suggesting that Bitcoin’s path toward the symbolic $100,000 level is becoming increasingly independent of broad macro trends, particularly its previously tight linkage with technology stocks.
This decoupling means that Bitcoin bulls are now focusing on crypto-specific catalysts. The prevailing strategy appears to be one of consolidation and defense. The longer Bitcoin can maintain its footing above the $90,000 support level, the more confidence builds that a foundation is being laid for the next leg up. For this confidence to translate into decisive action, market participants are watching for three key developments: a meaningful return of consistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, a normalization of risk aversion in the derivatives market (evidenced by a higher futures basis and a lower put/call ratio), and the materialization of expected liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve.
Strategic Conclusion: A Market at an Inflection Point
The current state of the Bitcoin market is one of tension between powerful macroeconomic support and internal crypto-market caution. The surge in Fed rate-cut bets creates a fundamentally positive environment for scarce assets, yet this has been insufficient to overcome immediate headwinds from stagnant institutional flows and wary derivatives positioning.
For professional investors and traders, the present situation underscores the importance of monitoring on-chain and derivatives metrics with as much vigilance as macroeconomic data. The actions of corporate holders like MicroStrategy and SpaceX serve as critical indicators of high-net-worth sentiment. Similarly, the flows into U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a real-time barometer of institutional appetite.
Looking ahead, the market is at an inflection point. The bullish case rests on Bitcoin successfully defending the $90,000 level until the anticipated Fed liquidity materializes and institutional flows resume. The convergence of these factors could provide the catalyst for a breakout. Conversely, failure to hold this support or a continuation of stagnant ETF inflows could prolong the current period of consolidation. In this environment, patience and close attention to blockchain data points and derivatives market health are paramount for navigating the path toward—or away from—the coveted $100,000 milestone.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice.