Bitcoin’s Rebound Hinges on Double Resistance Breakout: A Technical and Macroeconomic Analysis
Introduction
In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price action remains the primary barometer for market sentiment. As of late November 2025, the flagship digital asset has demonstrated a critical show of strength, holding the psychologically significant $90,000 threshold for four consecutive days following a sharp decline. This period of consolidation has injected a measure of renewed confidence among investors, suggesting that a potential rebound is not off the table. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the path to a sustained recovery is fraught with significant technical and macroeconomic hurdles. The market's optimism is cautiously tempered by the presence of two formidable supply clusters and a key on-chain metric that must be conquered to re-establish a clear bullish trajectory. This article delves into the precise resistance levels Bitcoin must overcome, the critical role of short-term holder behavior, and the external volatility factors that could dictate its next major move.
The Formidable Supply Cluster: Bitcoin’s Primary Hurdle
Bitcoin's most immediate challenge is not a single price point but a series of zones where sell-side pressure is heavily concentrated. According to data from Glassnode, these supply clusters represent regions where a high volume of sell orders have accumulated, creating substantial resistance that can halt or even reverse upward price momentum.
The first and closest supply cluster lies between $93,000 and $96,000. This zone represents the initial line of defense for bears. A push into this range would likely encounter significant selling activity from traders looking to break even or take profits, potentially stalling any near-term rally.
Beyond this, a second, more substantial cluster sits between $103,000 and $108,000. The volatility concentrated within this band poses an even greater threat to bullish momentum. If Bitcoin’s price ascends to this region, it would face its most significant test since reclaiming the $90,000 level. A failure to decisively break through either of these supply levels could trigger a reversal, sending Bitcoin back below the recently defended $90,000 region. Furthermore, analysts note that a decisive weekly close below $82,000—identified as Bitcoin’s True Mean Market Value—could signal the beginning of a broader bearish market phase.
The Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis: The Ultimate Bullish Gatekeeper
Even if Bitcoin successfully navigates the turbulent waters of the supply clusters up to $108,000, another critical determinant for its continued bullish momentum remains. This key metric is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis.
The STH Cost Basis, as defined by Glassnode, is the average price at which wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less acquired their coins. It represents the aggregate cost basis for this historically reactive cohort of investors. As of the latest data, this level sits at $109,800.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price trading sustainably above the STH Cost Basis has been a strong indicator of market stability and has often opened the door for extended rallies. When the price is above this level, the average short-term holder is in profit, reducing their incentive to sell and creating a solid support base. Conversely, trading below this metric suggests persistent selling pressure from this group, as they are more likely to sell at a loss to avoid further downside, thereby weighing heavily on the market.
Therefore, Bitcoin’s rebound strategy is twofold: first, it must power through the dual supply clusters up to $108,000, and second, it must achieve a decisive breakout above $109,800 to reset market stability and unlock its stronger bullish potential.
A Global Storm Warning: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Bitcoin’s fate is not solely determined by its internal on-chain metrics; it operates within the broader context of global financial markets. A significant external factor currently casting a shadow is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street’s "fear gauge."
The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. When this metric rises, as it is currently signaling, it typically indicates growing fear and uncertainty among investors. This has a direct influence on markets like the S&P 500, which has demonstrated a historical correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements. Such spikes in the VIX often precede short-term declines across risk assets.
Market analyst Joao Wedson has contextualized the current situation with a historical parallel: “In past major bubbles [like the dotcom bubble], the VIX tended to rise right before things burst… Big Tech and AI companies are more stretched than ever.” This observation suggests that the current volatility could be more than a brief correction. A sharp, widespread crash in overvalued equity markets could trigger a severe risk-off event, impacting all speculative assets and potentially pushing Bitcoin into a confirmed bearish phase regardless of its technical setup.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating the Path Ahead
The current state of Bitcoin presents a clear roadmap defined by technical levels and overshadowed by macroeconomic uncertainty. The immediate future of its rebound hinges directly on its ability to execute a double resistance breakout—first conquering the supply clusters between $93,000-$96,000 and $103,000-$108,000, and then securing a position above the $109,800 STH Cost Basis.
For professional crypto readers and traders, vigilance is paramount. The coming weeks will be critical for observing how Bitcoin interacts with these defined levels. Key actions include:
- Monitoring Liquidation Heatmaps: Closely watch order book data and liquidation heatmaps for changes in the density of the identified supply clusters. A thinning of sell orders in these zones would be a positive sign.
- Tracking On-Chain Data: Keep a close eye on Glassnode’s STH Cost Basis metric. A successful flip of $109,800 from resistance to support would be one of the strongest technical confirmations of a renewed bull run.
- Watching Global Indicators: Do not operate in a vacuum. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the performance of major equity indices like the S&P 500 will provide crucial context for overall risk appetite. A calming of global volatility would provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin’s breakout attempts.
In summary, while Bitcoin has successfully defended its $90,000 foundation, its journey toward a sustained recovery is only beginning. The path is technically defined but remains vulnerable to broader market sentiment. Success depends on navigating precise internal resistance levels while hoping for stability in the external financial landscape.