Kalshi Traders Bet Against $100K Bitcoin Rebound Despite ETF Inflows: A Deep Dive into the Bearish Sentiment
Introduction: A Tale of Two Markets – ETF Inflows Clash with Prediction Market Pessimism
The cryptocurrency market is currently witnessing a fascinating divergence. On one hand, Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a significant 17% price rebound from lows near $82,000 on November 21 to graze the $93,000 level by November 28, accompanied by substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). On the other hand, a wave of bearish sentiment is emerging from key market sectors. Prediction markets, particularly on the platform Kalshi, are seeing traders significantly cut the odds of Bitcoin reclaiming the coveted $100,000 level before the end of 2025. This skepticism is compounded by notable outflows from a major ETF issuer and a pause in aggressive accumulation by a prominent corporate whale. This article delves into the data behind this conflicting signals, analyzing the ETF flows, whale activity, and prediction market odds to provide a comprehensive picture of Bitcoin's current market structure and the challenges it faces in its quest for $100,000.
Bitcoin's Price Rebound Meets Stiff Resistance at $95,000
Bitcoin's recent price action has been a rollercoaster for investors. After finding a local bottom around $82,000 on November 21, the premier cryptocurrency embarked on a robust recovery, climbing approximately 17% to test the $93,000 level by November 28. This move signaled a strong buy-the-dip mentality among a segment of the market. However, the rally lost steam as it approached a critical technical and psychological barrier: the $95,000 resistance level. Despite closing the trading session on Friday, November 28, with modest net-positive flows, BTC was unable to secure a decisive break above this key threshold. The failure to advance beyond $95,000 has become a focal point for traders, indicating that while buying pressure exists, it is not yet sufficient to overcome selling pressure at higher price levels.
ETF Inflows: A Silver Lining Overshadowed by BlackRock's Outflow
The spot Bitcoin ETF landscape has been a cornerstone of institutional adoption, and recent data shows continued interest. Between November 25 and November 28, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $221 million in net inflows. This period of sustained investment culminated in a net-positive session of $74 million on Friday, November 28. These inflows demonstrate that the product category continues to attract capital, providing a foundational layer of support for the Bitcoin market.
However, a deeper look reveals a concerning anomaly. On that same Friday, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager and a bellwether for institutional sentiment, recorded a significant outflow of $117 million from its Bitcoin ETF. This single event effectively overshadowed the net-positive flows from other issuers for the day. Given BlackRock's stature and its positioning often setting the tone for other institutional investors globally, this substantial outflow is interpreted by many analysts as a signal of weakening bullish conviction among some major players. It introduces a note of caution into an otherwise positive narrative of steady ETF demand.
Whale Activity Cools as Strategy Pauses Its Buying Spree
Beyond the ETF ecosystem, the behavior of large holders, or "whales," is a critical gauge of market sentiment. In this regard, recent data points to a more cautious stance. Strategy Inc. (MSTR), the Michael Saylor-led software company known for its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, made no purchases last week. This pause ended a consistent 14-week buying run that began in August.
According to data from Bitbo, Strategy's last confirmed purchase was on November 17, when it acquired 8,178 BTC for $836 million. This purchase brought its total holdings to an impressive 649,870 BTC. The cessation of its weekly purchases removes a significant source of consistent demand from the market. The actions of large entities like Strategy are closely watched, and their decision to step back from buying, even temporarily, can be perceived as a lack of immediate conviction for further price appreciation in the short term.
Prediction Markets Turn Bearish Amid Kalshi Lawsuit Controversy
The sentiment shift is perhaps most pronounced in prediction markets. Kalshi, a major platform for event-based trading, now shows traders assigning lower probabilities to Bitcoin achieving key price milestones. This bearish tilt coincides with reports that Kalshi faces a major lawsuit over alleged market manipulation and accusations of betting against its own users.
Intraday Kalshi order books from November 29 provide concrete evidence of this shifting sentiment:
- The odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before the end of 2025 dropped by 11%.
- Concurrently, the odds of Bitcoin closing 2025 below the $80,000 mark rose by 8% to hit 36%.
- The probability of a breakout to $110,000 also fell by 7% to 45%.
These metrics indicate that traders on this platform are increasingly hedging their bets towards a more pessimistic year-end outcome for 2025, favoring a potential retreat below $80,000 over a rally past $100,000.
Technical Analysis: Navigating the Path Between $90,000 and $95,000
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture as it attempts to rebuild its market structure following the sharp recovery from the $82,705 support area. Analysis of the daily chart shows Bitcoin price pinned below resistance at $92,971. The price is currently compressed within the mid-band of the Keltner Channel, a pattern that often precedes a significant directional breakout.
Momentum indicators offer a mixed but slightly improving picture:
- The MACD line has crossed into positive territory for the first time since early November, indicating early signs of bullish momentum.
- The Woodies CCI has reclaimed the 0-line and is forming sequential higher lows, suggesting renewed buyer participation during the recent dip.
For bulls to regain clear control and invalidate the bearish bias seen in prediction markets, a decisive daily close above the $95,000 resistance—aligned with the upper Keltner Channel boundary—is crucial. Such a move would reopen the path toward the $100,000 psychological level.
Conversely, the market remains vulnerable to another wave of liquidations if support levels fail. A consecutive daily close below the $90,000 support zone could significantly weaken bullish momentum. If this occurs, the next key support level to watch is near $85,880, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Keltner Channel.
Strategic Conclusion: A Market at an Inflection Point
The current state of the Bitcoin market is one of conflicting signals and equilibrium. The positive ETF inflows are being counterbalanced by significant outflows from a major issuer and a cooling-off in whale accumulation. This fundamental tug-of-war is reflected in the technical compression between $90,000 support and $95,000 resistance.
The bearish shift in prediction markets on Kalshi adds another layer to this complex picture. While these markets represent only one segment of trader sentiment and are currently clouded by their own internal controversies like lawsuits over alleged manipulation they nonetheless provide a quantifiable measure of growing risk aversion regarding Bitcoin's short- to medium-term price prospects.
For professional crypto readers and investors, the immediate future hinges on a few key developments:
- Monitor ETF Flow Consistency: Watch if BlackRock's outflow was an isolated event or the start of a trend. Sustained net inflows across all issuers are needed to bolster confidence.
- Watch for Whale Re-engagement: The market will be watching closely for Strategy or other corporate entities to resume their Bitcoin purchase programs.
- Respect Technical Boundaries: The battle between bulls and bears will be decided at the $95,000 resistance and $90,000 support levels. A breakout or breakdown from this range will likely dictate the next major price move.
In summary, while Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with its recent rebound from sub-$82,000 levels overcoming the current confluence of technical resistance bearish prediction market odds and cautious institutional behavior presents a formidable challenge for bulls aiming to propel BTC toward $100k
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Market conditions are dynamic; always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.