Bitcoin and Ethereum Navigate $15 Billion Options Expiry as Market Searches for Bottom
Introduction: A $15 Billion Event That Barely Moved the Market
On November 28, 2025, the cryptocurrency market witnessed one of the largest monthly options expiries in its history. A combined $15.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts reached their expiration date, yet the event was met with an unexpected and profound calm. Approximately 150,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options, valued at $13.4 billion, and 573,000 Ethereum (ETH) options, valued at $1.7 billion, expired without triggering the significant volatility that often accompanies such large-scale derivatives events. This occurrence has become a focal point for analysts attempting to gauge whether the recent market downturn has finally found a stable foundation. The market's muted response, despite the sheer size of the expiry, suggests a critical shift in underlying market structure and sentiment.
Understanding the Mechanics of a $15B Options Expiry
To comprehend why this event was significant yet uneventful, one must first understand the basics of options trading. An options contract gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (a "call" option) or sell (a "put" option) an asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A massive expiry represents a moment when vast numbers of these contracts are settled, which can typically exert substantial pressure on the spot market as traders hedge their positions or are forced to buy or sell the underlying asset.
The scale of this particular expiry was immense. The $13.4 billion in BTC options and $1.7 billion in ETH options represented a major month-end reckoning for derivatives traders. Data from Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, provided key metrics that painted a clear picture of market positioning heading into the event. For Bitcoin, the Put/Call Ratio stood at 0.58. A ratio below 1.0 indicates that there were more call (long) options than put (short) options set to expire, signaling that a majority of traders were positioned for a price increase or were using calls as a hedge.
Decoding Max Pain: Why Prices Remained Stable
A central concept in analyzing options expiries is "max pain." This is the price at which the total value of all the expiring options is minimized, causing the maximum financial loss to option buyers and the maximum gain to option sellers. For this November 28 expiry, Bitcoin's max pain point was identified at $100,000, while Ethereum's was at $3,400.
The market's behavior in relation to these levels is crucial. Bitcoin closed at $90,955 on the day, with a high of $93,000, consistently trading below its $100,000 max pain threshold. When the spot price remains below max pain for a heavily call-skewed expiry, it often means that a vast majority of the call options expire worthless. In this scenario, option sellers—who are typically large institutions or market makers—do not face intense pressure to manipulate the spot price downward to protect their positions. Their risk is already minimized because the price is below the level where most calls would become profitable for buyers.
This dynamic helps explain the remarkable stability. With no urgent need for sellers to defend their positions by pushing the market around, and with a significant amount of speculative leverage already cleared from the system in prior weeks, the expiry passed as a non-event. For Ethereum, which had a perfectly balanced Put/Call Ratio of 1.0, the equilibrium between long and short positions also contributed to the lack of directional pressure.
A Market Flush: The Backdrop of Cleared Leverage
The calm during the expiry did not occur in a vacuum. It was preceded by a dramatic deleveraging event across the crypto market. According to analytics firm CryptoQuant, the market experienced the most significant Open Interest (OI) wipeout of the current cycle. Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.
Data showed that aggregate OI plummeted from a peak of approximately $45 billion down to around $28 billion—a sharp reset of over $17 billion. This "flush" effectively liquidated a massive amount of overheated and over-leveraged positions, forcing out weak hands and speculators who were amplifying market volatility. When such a cleansing occurs, the market becomes structurally healthier and less prone to cascading liquidations. The $15 billion options expiry arrived precisely when leverage had already been largely drained from the system, leaving fewer vulnerable positions to be triggered by price swings related to the event.
Expert Insight: Is This The Bitcoin Bottom?
The search for a market bottom is the dominant narrative following this expiry. The resilience shown by Bitcoin, holding around the $90,000 level in what has been a risk-off macroeconomic environment and despite a max pain point set much higher at $100,000, is being interpreted by some as a sign of underlying strength.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has publicly argued that Bitcoin may have established a price floor at $80,000 during the latest sell-off. His analysis is partly based on macroeconomic factors, specifically the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) cycle. An end to QT could signal a more accommodative monetary policy environment, which has historically been bullish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The combination of technical factors—Bitcoin defending key support levels—and fundamental factors like the massive OI flush and stable options expiry creates a compelling case that the worst of the selling pressure may be over. The fact that buyers consistently stepped in to defend support around $90k, even with a major derivatives overhang, indicates sustained demand at these levels.
Comparative Analysis: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum's Diverging Paths
While both assets faced a colossal expiry together, their individual paths revealed subtle differences in market structure and sentiment.
- Bitcoin (BTC): With a Put/Call Ratio of 0.58 and max pain at $100,000, Bitcoin's market was demonstrably bullish in its positioning. Traders were overwhelmingly betting on prices moving higher in the long term or using calls for protection. Its ability to hold support far below max pain without collapsing suggests strong foundational buying interest.
- Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum presented a more neutral picture with its Put/Call Ratio of exactly 1.0 and a max pain point of $3,400. This balance indicates an equal number of traders were betting on price increases as were betting on decreases or hedging against them. This equilibrium likely played a direct role in muting volatility for ETH during the expiry.
In terms of scale, Bitcoin's $13.4 billion expiry dwarfed Ethereum's $1.7 billion event by nearly eight times, underscoring Bitcoin's continued dominance as the primary asset for institutional derivatives activity. However, Ethereum's substantial notional value still solidifies its role as the clear number two and an essential component of crypto market liquidity and hedging strategies.
Strategic Conclusion: Steadiness as a Signal
The passage of a $15 billion options expiry with minimal volatility is not merely an interesting footnote; it is a potentially significant signal for market health. It demonstrates that extreme leverage has been purged from the system and that current price levels are being defended by genuine buyer interest rather than speculative derivatives activity.
For readers and investors watching for signs of a durable bottom, this event provides cautious optimism. The key takeaway is not that prices exploded upward following the expiry, but that they held firm despite it.
Looking ahead, market participants should monitor several key indicators:
- Open Interest Rebuilding: Watch if Open Interest begins to climb again in a healthy manner without leading to excessive funding rates.
- Macroeconomic Catalysts: Pay close attention to Federal Reserve policy announcements and economic data that could influence Arthur Hayes's thesis on Quantitative Tightening.
- Spot Market Demand: Continued evidence of accumulation and strong holding patterns around current support levels will be crucial for confirming a bottom has been established.
In conclusion, while no single event can definitively mark a market bottom, the calm navigation of one of crypto's largest-ever options expiries suggests that after a painful flush, stability may be returning. The market’s resilience indicates that it is building a stronger foundation for its next move.
Ritika Gupta is a Financial Journalist and Geopolitical Analyst at AMBCrypto.