Coinbase Premium Turns Green as Bitcoin Tops $90K, Signaling Renewed U.S. Demand

Introduction: A Key Metric Flips Positive

In a significant shift for market sentiment, the Coinbase Premium Index has flipped positive for the first time in weeks, coinciding with Bitcoin's reclaiming of the $90,000 price level. This development, observed on November 29, 2025, marks a potential turning point, signaling the first signs of a U.S.-led demand recovery after a prolonged period of net selling pressure from American traders. Fresh data from CoinGlass shows the premium moving into green territory on the 1-hour timeframe, breaking a persistent trend of negative readings that dominated much of November. This article will dissect this critical indicator, analyze the concurrent price action, and explore what this combination could mean for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

Understanding the Coinbase Premium Index

The Coinbase Premium Index is a key on-chain metric that tracks the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase (a U.S.-based, regulated exchange) and its price on Binance (a global exchange). When this index turns positive—often referred to as "turning green"—it indicates that BTC is trading at a higher price on Coinbase relative to Binance.

This phenomenon is typically interpreted as a signal of renewed buying strength from U.S.-based market participants. These participants include retail investors trading on the platform and, significantly, institutional accounts that utilize Coinbase's custodial and prime brokerage services. A positive premium suggests that demand on the U.S. side of the market is outpacing that in the global market, often driven by inflows of U.S. dollars (fiat) or stablecoins into the ecosystem through regulated American venues. Conversely, a negative premium, or discount, indicates that selling pressure is more pronounced in the U.S., with prices on Coinbase lagging behind global averages.

The November Slump: A Period of U.S. Selling Pressure

To appreciate the significance of the current shift, it is essential to understand the market context that preceded it. Throughout late October and most of November 2025, the Coinbase Premium Index was consistently negative. This meant that Bitcoin was trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to other major exchanges.

This persistent discount was a clear signal of net selling pressure from U.S. traders. Several factors can contribute to such periods, including risk-off sentiment among American investors, profit-taking after rallies, or macroeconomic concerns specific to the U.S. economy that prompt capital outflow from volatile assets like crypto. The chart data from CoinGlass now shows this discount fading, with the premium definitively jumping into positive territory. This break from a multi-week trend is what makes the current development particularly noteworthy for analysts.

Historical Context: When the Premium Flips

Historically, a shift in the Coinbase Premium from negative to positive has occurred under specific market conditions. While past performance is not indicative of future results, these historical precedents provide valuable context for interpreting the current signal.

1. U.S. Retail Re-engagement After a Correction: Following a significant price correction or a prolonged bearish period, retail investors often re-enter the market once they perceive a bottom or a trend reversal. The positive premium can be one of the earliest indicators of this returning confidence.
2. Institutional Re-accumulation: Institutional investors often execute large buy orders through regulated U.S. exchanges like Coinbase. A sustained positive premium can suggest that these large players are beginning to accumulate positions again after a period of distribution or inactivity.
3. Increased Fiat and Stablecoin Inflows: A positive premium often correlates with an increase in stablecoin-to-fiat flows on U.S. venues. This indicates that fresh capital, in the form of U.S. dollars, is being converted into crypto or stablecoins with the intent to purchase assets like Bitcoin.

It is crucial to note that while the current positive premium is a meaningful directional change—the first clear sign that U.S. demand is no longer net-negative—it is still early and shallow compared to the massive premiums seen during peak bull market phases in past cycles.

Bitcoin Price Action: Reclaiming $90K and Forming a Higher Low

The shift in the Coinbase Premium did not occur in a vacuum; it was accompanied by significant and technically important price action for Bitcoin. After falling to the $84,000 region—a level that now serves as a recent swing low—Bitcoin has since rallied to reclaim $91,138.

An analysis of the BTC price chart reveals two critical technical developments:

• Formation of a Higher Low: On the daily timeframe, the drop to $84,000 and subsequent bounce has potentially formed a "higher low" relative to any previous significant lows. This is a key component of a healthy bullish trend structure, indicating that each corrective wave is finding support at a progressively higher level than the last.
• Bullish MACD Crossover: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a popular momentum gauge, is beginning to form a bullish crossover. This occurs when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, suggesting that near-term momentum may be turning positive after a period of bearish dominance.

This alignment—rising spot demand signaled by the green Coinbase Premium and structurally improving price action on the chart—suggests that the correction phase that dominated much of November may be stabilizing.

What Traders Should Watch Next: Key Levels and Metrics

While the current signals are encouraging for bulls, their sustainability is key. Market participants should monitor several factors in the coming days and weeks to gauge whether this recovery attempt has lasting power.

• Resistance at $92.5K – $94K: The immediate hurdle for Bitcoin is the local resistance zone between $92,500 and $94,000. This area represents the late-November price ceiling that preceded the most recent pullback. A decisive break above this zone would be a strong technical confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.
• Support at $90K: The recently reclaimed $90,000 level must now hold as support. If Bitcoin can consolidate above this psychologically and technically important price point, it would provide a solid foundation for a further upward move.
• The Sustainability of the Coinbase Premium: The most critical metric to watch alongside price is the Coinbase Premium Index itself. The key question is whether it can stay positive or if it will snap back into negative territory. If the premium holds above zero while BTC consolidates above $90,000, it would significantly strengthen the case for a larger and more sustained recovery attempt led by U.S. demand.

Final Thoughts: Stabilization and Confirmation

The turn of the Coinbase Premium Index into positive territory is more than just a fleeting data point; it signals the first meaningful return of U.S. demand after weeks of consistent selling pressure. This shift provides a fundamental rationale behind Bitcoin's ability to form a higher low and reclaim the critical $90,000 level.

The current market structure is beginning to show signs of stabilization after a corrective phase. However, initial signals require confirmation. For this recovery to evolve into a full-fledged resumption of the broader uptrend, sustained bid strength from U.S. participants—as evidenced by a persistently green Coinbase Premium—is the most critical confirmation for traders and investors to watch. The interplay between this on-chain demand metric and Bitcoin's ability to navigate key technical levels will dictate the market's direction in the final weeks of 2025.