Cathie Wood Reaffirms $1.5M Bitcoin Target as BTC Surges Past Key ETF Holder Cost Basis
Introduction: A Week of Resurgent Optimism in Crypto Markets
This week marked a significant turning point for cryptocurrency markets, staging a long-awaited recovery after four consecutive weeks of downside momentum. The resurgence was led by Bitcoin (BTC), which reclaimed the psychologically important $90,000 mark on Wednesday. This price movement provided crucial relief for Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders, as BTC traded above the key $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis for ETF buyers, returning them to a profitable position. Bolstering this positive shift, Cathie Wood, the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of ARK Invest, publicly reaffirmed the firm's ambitious $1.5 million Bitcoin bull market price prediction. She pointed to billions in returning liquidity following the end of the US government shutdown as a key factor supporting this outlook. This confluence of technical price action and high-profile institutional confidence has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the digital asset space.
Bitcoin's Rally and the Critical ETF Cost Basis
The recent price action saw Bitcoin's (BTC) value climb back above $90,000, a level watched closely by traders and investors. More importantly, this surge pushed the price beyond the $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis for Bitcoin ETF holders. This metric represents the average purchase price for investors who entered the market via spot Bitcoin ETFs. Trading above this level is a critical technical and psychological milestone, as it shifts the majority of ETF investors back into a profitable position, potentially reducing selling pressure from this cohort and reinforcing support at these levels. This development is particularly noteworthy given the challenging month for Bitcoin, which is still facing its worst November in seven years, down approximately 17% on the monthly chart despite the month historically averaging 41% returns, according to data from CoinGlass.
ARK Invest's Unshaken $1.5M Vision Amidst Market Flux
Despite recent market volatility, Cathie Wood and ARK Invest have maintained their long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin. In a webinar on Monday, Wood confirmed that the company’s $1.5 million Bitcoin price target for 2030 in its "bull case" scenario, initially predicted in April alongside a $300,000 "bear case" target, remains unchanged. Wood acknowledged that the accelerated growth of stablecoins has subtracted from some of the safe-haven role they had anticipated for Bitcoin. However, she noted that this has been counterbalanced by "gold price appreciation [that] has been far greater than we expected." She concluded that "net, our bull price, which most people focus on, really hasn’t changed." This reaffirmation from a prominent institutional investor provides a compelling long-term narrative amidst short-term price fluctuations.
The Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Liquidity and Monetary Policy
A significant driver behind the renewed optimism is a shift in macroeconomic conditions. ARK Invest attributes much of the potential for a market reversal to improving liquidity and supportive monetary policy. According to the firm, $70 billion has already returned to markets since the end of the US government shutdown, with another $300 billion expected to return over the next five to six weeks as the Treasury General Account normalizes. Furthermore, markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the US Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting, a sharp increase from 39% just a week prior, as indicated by the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Adding to this, ARK Invest highlighted in a Wednesday X post that "quantitative tightening (QT) [is] ending December 1st." This pivot from the Federal Reserve toward quantitative easing, which involves bond-buying to stimulate economic activity, is viewed as a major potential catalyst for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Wood described the current "liquidity squeeze" limiting crypto and AI markets as set to "reverse in the next few weeks."
Regulatory Progress: UK's "Meaningful Step Forward" in DeFi Taxation
Beyond market dynamics, regulatory clarity continues to evolve in key jurisdictions. The UK took a significant step by proposing a new tax framework that eases the burden on decentralized finance (DeFi) users. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) floated a "no gain, no loss" approach on Wednesday. This would defer capital gains taxes on crypto lending and liquidity pool transactions until the underlying token is sold, rather than at the point of depositing funds into a protocol. Under the proposal, taxable gains or losses would be calculated when liquidity tokens are redeemed, based on the number of tokens a user receives back compared to the number they originally contributed. Sian Morton, marketing lead at the cross-chain payments system Relay protocol, called it a "meaningful step forward for UK DeFi users" that "moves tax treatment closer to the actual economic reality of these interactions." Maria Riivari, a lawyer at DeFi platform Aave, added that it "would bring clarity that DeFi transactions do not trigger tax until you truly sell your tokens."
Capital Influx: DWF Labs Launches $75M Fund for Institutional DeFi
The push for institutional-grade DeFi infrastructure received a substantial boost with crypto market maker and Web3 investment firm DWF Labs announcing a new $75 million fund. The initiative, announced via X on Wednesday, is aimed at supporting decentralized finance projects that can drive institutional adoption. The fund will target projects building "dark-pool perpetual DEXs, decentralized money markets, and fixed-income or yield-bearing asset products," which DWF Labs believes are poised for major growth. Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, stated that "DeFi is entering its institutional phase," emphasizing the need for infrastructure "that can handle size, protect order flow, and generate sustainable yield." The fund will focus on projects built across Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, Solana, and Coinbase’s layer-2 network, Base. Beyond capital, DWF Labs will offer support through liquidity provisioning, go-to-market strategy, and access to its network of partners.
Protocol Resilience: Balancer Proposes Plan for Hack Recovery
The resilience of the DeFi ecosystem was tested and demonstrated this week following the November exploit of the Balancer protocol. In response to the $116 million heist, two members of the Balancer community submitted a proposal on Thursday outlining a distribution plan for a portion of the recovered funds. Approximately $28 million was recovered in total by white hat hackers, internal rescuers, and StakeWise. The current proposal covers the $8 million recovered by white hat hackers and internal teams. It recommends that reimbursements be non-socialized—meaning funds are distributed only to the specific liquidity pools that lost them—and paid on a pro-rata basis according to each holder's share represented by Balancer Pool Tokens (BPT). Furthermore, repayments would be made "in-kind," with victims receiving payment in the specific tokens they lost to avoid price mismatches.
Corporate Foray: Enlivex's $212M Pivot into Prediction Markets
In a notable example of corporate treasury diversification into crypto, Nasdaq-listed biotech firm Enlivex Therapeutics (ENLV) announced a planned pivot. The clinical-stage immunotherapy company said on Monday it plans to raise $212 million through a private investment in public equity (PIPE) offering, selling 212 million shares at $1 each. According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, this represents an 11.5% discount to its previous closing price. The company intends to invest the majority of the raised capital into Rain (RAIN), the utility token behind the Rain decentralized prediction market on the Arbitrum network. Shai Novik, Executive Chairman at Enlivex Therapeutics, told Cointelegraph that they see "prediction markets as one of the most exciting emerging sectors in the blockchain space" with "exceptional" long-term growth potential. He cited Rain's "decentralized" architecture as a key reason for the selection.
Conclusion: Synthesizing Market Recovery with Long-Term Building
This week's developments paint a picture of a crypto market at an inflection point. The short-term relief provided by Bitcoin's surge past key technical levels and improving macroeconomic liquidity is being underpinned by sustained long-term conviction from major investors like Cathie Wood. Simultaneously, the ecosystem continues to mature through regulatory advancements like those in the UK, significant capital injections aimed at institutional infrastructure from firms like DWF Labs, and demonstrated protocol resilience in handling major exploits like Balancer's. The bold move by Enlivex further signals growing corporate interest in specific crypto verticals beyond simple Bitcoin treasury holdings. For readers and market participants, key areas to watch include the actualization of projected Fed policy shifts post-December 1, the continued flow of liquidity back into markets, and the progress of institutional-focused DeFi projects funded by initiatives like DWF Labs' new fund. While short-term volatility remains inherent to crypto assets,the foundational pillars of institutional adoption,predictable regulation,and robust infrastructure are being reinforced,suggesting a complex but forward-moving trajectory forthe entire digital asset space