Bitcoin’s Worst November Since 2019 Sets Stage for Promising 2026, Says LVRG’s Nick Ruck

Introduction: A Red November Paves the Way for a Green 2026

Bitcoin is poised to close November with its most significant monthly loss since at least 2019, marking a stark departure from its typical seasonal strength. Despite the short-term bearish sentiment, this downturn is being framed by industry analysts not as a catastrophe, but as a necessary market cleanse that lays the foundation for a robust start to 2026. According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin (BTC) is down nearly 16.9% so far this month, trading around $91,500 and nearing the losses from November 2019, when it declined by almost 17.3%. This corrective phase, while challenging for overleveraged participants, is seen as an opportunity for strategic, long-term investors to accumulate positions at more favorable prices, setting the stage for the next major market cycle.

Historical Context: Understanding Bitcoin's November Performance

To fully grasp the significance of the current market movement, it is essential to examine Bitcoin’s historical performance during the month of November. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin’s worst November occurred in 2018 during the brutal bear market that followed the 2017 peak, when the price dumped 36.5%. More recently, in 2022, Bitcoin finished the month down 16.2%. The current performance, down 16.9%, places this November as the worst since 2018 and the most significant drop since 2019.

Crypto educator Sumit Kapoor highlighted this anomaly, noting, “Normally, November is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months.” However, with a slow Thanksgiving weekend and only a few days remaining in the month, he stated that it is “on track to be the worst November since 2018.” This historical comparison provides a crucial backdrop, suggesting that such significant negative Novembers are rare and have historically occurred during broader market corrections or bear phases.

The Capitulation Event: Clearing Out Weakness for Long-Term Health

The sharp decline this month is being interpreted by some analysts as a capitulation event. Nick Ruck, Research Director at LVRG, told Cointelegraph, “While November will be printing in the red for crypto, the capitulation signals an opportunity for smart investors to start buying back in.” He elaborated that this market phase has effectively “cleared out” overleveraged participants and unsustainable projects.

This process is a natural and often healthy part of a market cycle. It removes speculative excess and transfers assets from weak hands to strong, long-term holders. Ruck’s analysis suggests that this reset “gives way for new long-term holders to scale in ahead of a promising new year,” directly pointing to a positive outlook for 2026 based on this foundational cleansing.

The Disrupted Four-Year Cycle and Institutional Influence

A key factor discussed by analysts is the apparent disruption of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. Justin d’Anethan, Head of Research at Arctic Digital, explained to Cointelegraph that crypto-native investors are “used to a somewhat predictable four-year cycle and, in the past, that’s led to rallies going into year-end, with October, November and often December finishing in the green.”

D’Anethan attributes this cycle shift to an external catalyst: “the launches of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in early 2024.” The introduction of these regulated financial products brought a substantial wave of institutional capital into the Bitcoin market, altering its dynamics. Rather than viewing this disruption negatively, d’Anethan sees it as a positive development: “it hints at the ever so dangerous ‘this time is different’ as institutions finally came in a meaningful way, changing the pace, breadth and timing of crypto price action.” This institutional involvement represents a fundamental change in market structure that may lead to different timing for future cycles.

Technical Outlook: The Critical $93,000 Monthly Close

From a technical analysis perspective, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s monthly closing price. Analyst “CrediBull Crypto” identified key levels to watch in a post on X. “With the monthly close approaching - I’ve highlighted the two most relevant levels to watch at the close for this time frame - $93,401 and $102,437,” they stated.

The analyst provided a clear prognosis: a close above $93,000 “would be a positive sign” and is considered likely, while a close above $102,000 “would be incredibly bullish, but I think we may need to wait until next month for that one.” At the time of writing, BTC was trading at approximately $91,600, having faced resistance just below $92,000. Holding above the $93,000 level is viewed by technicians as critical for maintaining the integrity of the longer-term uptrend and preventing further downside.

Sequential Red Months: A Historical Precedent?

Adding another layer to the analysis is the historical tendency for negative performance to extend beyond November. Sumit Kapoor observed, “Every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red.” If this pattern holds true for 2024, it suggests that market participants should prepare for potential continued volatility or sideways movement through the end of the year. This historical precedent does not guarantee future performance but offers a cautious near-term outlook that aligns with the current technical resistance and market sentiment.

Conclusion: Strategic Patience for a Promising Horizon

The prevailing narrative from analysts indicates that Bitcoin’s difficult November is not a cause for long-term alarm but rather a strategic inflection point. The capitulation event has purged the market of excess leverage and weak projects, creating a healthier ecosystem. The disruptive influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally altered market cycles, bringing in institutional capital that changes historical patterns.

For investors and market watchers, the immediate focus should be on Bitcoin’s ability to secure a monthly close above the critical $93,000 level. Looking further ahead, the analysis from LVRG’s Nick Ruck provides a clear forward-looking thesis: the current downturn sets the stage for a promising 2026. The consolidation and accumulation phase occurring now is positioned as the necessary groundwork for the next significant bull run. As the market digests these changes and new long-term holders establish positions, the stage appears to be set for a new chapter in Bitcoin’s evolution, driven by a more mature and institutionally-supported market structure.