Crypto Market Eyes Third Consecutive Year-End Rally as Post-Thanksgiving Pattern Repeats
Introduction: A Familiar Resurgence After a Harsh November
The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting its first meaningful recovery following a harsh November sell-off, with technical indicators and market structure beginning to mirror the post-Thanksgiving setups observed in both 2022 and 2023. As traders enter a long U.S. holiday weekend, a period that has historically set the tone for December, key metrics have turned positive. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,000 level, Ethereum is back above $3,000, and the wider market has returned to a cautious green. This bounce is underpinned by a rise in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a bullish flip in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and an improvement in market sentiment from extreme lows. The emerging pattern suggests that seller exhaustion and thin liquidity could be setting the stage for a significant December outcome, driven primarily by ETF flows and macro signals.
Market Indicators Turn Positive After Weeks of Fear
After a period of significant pressure, key on-chain and technical metrics are flashing tentative signs of strength. Data from the Fear and Greed Index shows sentiment improving from a reading of 11 last week to 22 today, although it remains firmly within the “Extreme Fear” territory. This shift aligns with a steady climb in the average crypto RSI, which rose from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3, signaling growing momentum after deep oversold conditions prevailed earlier in the month.
Perhaps more notably, market momentum has officially flipped. The normalized MACD across major assets has turned positive for the first time since early November. Supporting this technical turnaround, approximately 82% of tracked cryptocurrencies now show positive trend momentum, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all appearing in the bullish zone of CoinMarketCap’s MACD heatmap. This momentum is reflected in price action: Bitcoin is up 6% on the week, Ethereum has gained nearly 8%, and Solana climbed almost 8% in the same period. The total cryptocurrency market cap has grown to $3.21 trillion, rising 1.1% over the last 24 hours.
A Familiar Post-Thanksgiving Setup Has Emerged
The current market recovery is not occurring in a vacuum; it mirrors a structural pattern witnessed in the two preceding years. In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered the Thanksgiving period after a sharp drawdown, only to stabilize and make a decisive move in December.
In 2022, Bitcoin had fallen to near $16,000 in the wake of the FTX collapse. By Thanksgiving, selling pressure had largely exhausted itself, leading the market into a phase of sideways consolidation through Christmas—a period characterized more by bear-market stabilization than a vigorous rally.
Conversely, in 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving trading at $37,000 following a steep correction throughout September and October. That year, strong expectations for spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and improving liquidity conditions catalyzed a classic early-bull rally, pushing BTC to approximately $43,600 by Christmas.
This year, the pattern repeats the familiar element of an early November crash followed by easing selling momentum by Thanksgiving. Data shows Bitcoin’s 90-day Taker CVD has shifted from persistent sell dominance to neutral, signaling that aggressive sellers have stepped back—a view corroborated by funding rates and leverage data.
Liquidity Damage Still Shapes the Current Cycle
Beneath the surface of recovering indicators lies a market still grappling with the aftereffects of a liquidity shock. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, described the market as “limping” after the liquidation shock of October 10. He noted that market makers were forced to shrink their balance sheets, resulting in weakened market depth across exchanges—a fragility that persisted throughout November.
However, Lee also pointed out that Bitcoin tends to make its most significant price moves in short bursts when liquidity recovers. He anticipates a strong December rally should the Federal Reserve signal a softer monetary policy stance.
On-chain data provides a nuanced view that aligns with this perspective. Figures from Nexo show that users are preferentially borrowing against their Bitcoin rather than selling it outright. Bitcoin constitutes more than 53% of all collateral on the platform, maintaining a steady range of 53–57% for months. This behavior helps suppress immediate sell pressure in spot markets, contributing to stability. However, it also introduces hidden leverage into the system, which could amplify future volatility when market conditions shift.
We May Be Entering a Two-Year Holiday Pattern
Three critical factors now align closely with the post-Thanksgiving conditions observed in 2022 and 2023:
- Seller Exhaustion: The shift in Taker CVD to neutral signals that forced selling has abated for the time being.
- Momentum Recovery: Key metrics like MACD and RSI have reversed sharply after bottoming out earlier in November.
- Liquidity Stabilization: While market makers are still recovering, overall volatility has cooled, and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have slowed.
If this established pattern continues, December could produce one of two distinct outcomes based on recent history: a sideways consolidation phase similar to 2022 if liquidity remains thin, or a short, sharp rally akin to 2023 if broader macroeconomic conditions turn supportive. The deciding factor will likely be the tone set by the Federal Reserve in early December and the subsequent behavior of Bitcoin ETF flows. In an environment of thin liquidity, even moderate inflows have the potential to move prices rapidly.
December May Deliver a Large Move in Either Direction
The cryptocurrency market has entered a transition phase rather than establishing a clear, sustained trend. While sentiment remains extremely fearful according to benchmark indices, price action and momentum indicators are demonstrating tangible recovery. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $91,000 suggests buyers are willing to defend key technical levels, yet order-book depth across major exchanges remains notably weak.
With selling pressure fading and technical momentum rising, the current environment bears a striking resemblance to the post-Thanksgiving setups that marked the last two end-of-year cycles. If this pattern holds true for a third consecutive year, December is unlikely to be flat. Instead, it will likely bring a decisive move as liquidity conditions begin to shift.
Strategic Conclusion: Watching Macro Signals and ETF Flows
The stage appears set for a volatile December. The convergence of improving technical indicators, historical seasonal patterns, and fragile but stabilizing liquidity creates an environment ripe for a significant price movement. However, unlike rallies driven purely by internal crypto narratives, the direction of this move will depend heavily on external factors.
Investors and traders should monitor two primary catalysts in the coming weeks: commentary and policy signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and inflation, and daily flow data for U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. These factors will be paramount in determining whether December 2025 echoes the consolidating nature of 2022 or the bullish rally of 2023. In a market characterized by thin liquidity, these macro and institutional forces will likely be the ultimate arbiters of whether the third consecutive post-Thanksgiving pattern culminates in a year-end surge or a period of cautious equilibrium.
Please note that this content was created based on provided news summaries and adheres strictly to the information contained within them. It is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.