Solana’s Network Woes Push SOL Toward $100 as ETF Hopes Fade: An In-Depth Analysis

Introduction The Solana (SOL) ecosystem is facing a critical convergence of negative pressures, stalling its recent price recovery and threatening a deeper correction. After a promising climb, SOL’s rebound stalled decisively at the $145 resistance level. This downturn coincides with two significant developments: spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording their first-ever daily net outflow and a major security breach involving the Upbit exchange. Compounded by weakening on-chain metrics and a bearish technical pattern, these events have shifted market sentiment, putting a potential drop toward the $100 price level firmly on the table. This article dissects the multifaceted challenges confronting Solana, from institutional demand and network health to technical price projections.

Solana ETF Flows Flip Negative, Signaling Waning Institutional Demand A primary factor dampening Solana’s bullish momentum is a sudden shift in the behavior of its spot ETFs. As reported by Cointelegraph, these funds ended their uninterrupted streak of net inflows since launch, recording their first single-day net outflow of $8.2 million on Wednesday. This milestone is significant because consistent ETF inflows are widely interpreted as a barometer of sustained institutional interest. The reversal to an outflow suggests that this demand may be waning. This development occurred just as SOL’s price attempted to recover from lows around $120, creating a fundamental headwind that undermines the case for a swift price recovery. The flip to negative flows reflects a potential decline in institutional demand amid broader concerns about the network's activity.

On-Chain Activity and TVL Paint a Picture of Weak Network Demand Beyond ETF flows, the fundamental health of the Solana network itself is showing signs of strain. Data from analytics firm Nansen reveals several key metrics are in decline. Over the last seven days, the network has seen a 6% decrease in active addresses and a 16% decline in network fees. Falling fees can indicate reduced competition for block space, signaling weaker demand for network usage.

This trend is further corroborated by Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL). According to DefiLlama, Solana’s TVL is down 20% month-to-date in November. More strikingly, it has fallen 32% from its September high of $13.23 billion to $9.1 billion as of November 11. A declining TVL suggests that capital is exiting Solana's decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, which can negatively impact network security, developer interest, and overall utility.

The downturn is not uniform across all projects but highlights vulnerabilities within key sectors of the ecosystem:

• Jito, a major liquid staking protocol, saw its TVL drop 33% over the past 30 days.
• Jupiter, a leading decentralized exchange aggregator, experienced a 28% TVL decline.
• Raydium, a core automated market maker (AMM), recorded a 31% decrease in TVL.
• Sanctum, another liquidity provider, faced a 22% TVL drop.

The underperformance of these foundational DeFi projects underscores the broad-based nature of the current contraction in network activity.

The Upbit Solana Hack Injects Fresh Market Uncertainty Adding a layer of external shock and uncertainty, the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit suffered a security breach involving its Solana hot wallet. As announced by Cointelegraph on November 27, 2025, the exchange suspended deposits and withdrawals after an "abnormal outflow" of $38.5 million (later specified as a $36 million theft) to an unknown wallet. Upbit confirmed it would cover all user losses.

While the exchange's guarantee mitigates direct user financial damage, the event has tangible market consequences. By halting SOL deposits and withdrawals for maintenance, Upbit effectively curbs liquidity for the asset. This restriction prevents users from easily entering or exiting positions, which can amplify sell-offs on other platforms and foster increased volatility. The hack introduces a negative sentiment shock at a precarious time, disrupting trading flows and eroding the bullish momentum needed to challenge the $150 resistance level. Despite these pressures, SOL’s price demonstrated short-term resilience, climbing 3% to $143 following the announcement before facing pared gains.

SOL Price Technical Analysis: A Bear Flag Targets $100 From a technical perspective, SOL’s price action has formed a concerning pattern on the six-hour chart: a textbook bear flag. A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern that typically forms after a sharp downward move, followed by a period of upward-sloping consolidation within a parallel channel.

In Solana’s case, this pattern began forming after SOL topped at around $170 on November 17. The subsequent consolidation has seen the price gradually climb while retesting the support line of the flag, which currently sits near $140. The critical level for traders is a decisive break below this $140 support. Such a break would validate the bear flag pattern and open the door for a bearish continuation toward the pattern's measured target of $99—a move that would represent total losses of approximately 30% from recent levels.

Market analysts are watching key levels closely. Trader MR Ape highlighted that the $145 level is key as it has “rejected the price three times already and momentum is slowing again” as SOL price approaches this zone. He added, “SOL is at a key pivot; the market will reveal its next move right here.” As previously reported by Cointelegraph, a drop below the flag's lower boundary around $120 could trigger further declines, potentially pushing the SOL/USDT pair toward $110 and subsequently to $95, where technical analysts anticipate buyers may step in.

Strategic Conclusion: Navigating a Confluence of Pressures Solana currently finds itself at a challenging crossroads, buffeted by a perfect storm of negative factors. The loss of institutional momentum, evidenced by the historic ETF outflow, aligns with deteriorating on-chain fundamentals like declining active addresses, fees, and TVL. The unexpected Upbit hack acts as an exogenous shock, further undermining confidence and disrupting market liquidity at a critical juncture.

While stagnant network fees and a weak derivatives market could delay SOL’s price recovery, the immediate threat is technical. The confirmed bear flag pattern presents a clear and present danger of a significant correction toward $100. For market participants, the key levels to watch are the $140 support line for a potential breakdown and the $145 resistance level for any signs of a bullish invalidation of the current bearish setup.

The situation underscores that even high-performance blockchains are not immune to cycles of declining demand and adverse market events. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Solana's underlying community and technology can absorb these shocks or if the projected technical downturn will materialize, testing investor resolve at price levels not seen in months.

Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.