Bitcoin Eyes Record Thanksgiving Close as Rally Hits 7-Day High
Introduction: A Pre-Holiday Surge Defies Historical Trends
Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a notable pre-holiday rally, climbing 13% from recent multimonth lows near $80,000 to reclaim the $90,000 mark. This upward movement, which saw the BTC/USD pair trading at $91,400 on Thursday after a more than 5% gain on Wednesday, has ignited speculation about a potential record-breaking Thanksgiving close. Historically, Bitcoin has averaged a -0.8% return on Thanksgiving Day, with gains occurring in only two of the last ten years. This year's surge challenges that trend, placing Bitcoin just 4% below its highest-ever close above $95,000, achieved on November 28, 2024. As markets prepare for the U.S. holiday, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can sustain this momentum and buck its seasonal pattern.
A Rare Bullish Wednesday Sets the Stage
The rally gained significant traction on Wednesday, a day that has historically shown bullish tendencies for Bitcoin preceding the Thanksgiving holiday. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlighted this pattern, noting, "Look, we just had a bullish Wednesday too," referencing previous analysis indicating that the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is consistently bullish, often followed by a bearish Thursday. This year's 5% Wednesday surge aligns with that historical precedent, providing a strong foundation for the weekly high. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed the price ascent, with Bitcoin breaking through short-term resistance levels to test the $91,000-$93,000 range. This marks what analyst Jelle described as the "first meaningful bounce in a long time," though he cautioned that markets could see choppy trading below resistance until after the holiday.
Bitcoin’s Thanksgiving History: Defying a Bearish Legacy
Thanksgiving has not traditionally been a favorable period for Bitcoin returns. According to data shared by analyst Crypto Daan Trades, Bitcoin has posted gains on Thanksgiving Day in only two out of the last ten years, with significant declines recorded in 2018 and 2020. The average return for the holiday stands at -0.8%. Analyst Tall (@tall_data) visualized this history in a social media post titled "Bitcoin thanksgiving history 🦃," underscoring the rarity of positive Thanksgiving performance. Despite this backdrop, the current rally has traders hopeful that 2025 could break the cycle. Fellow analyst Terence Michael encapsulated this sentiment, stating, "We have never yet had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving," while advising followers to remain prepared for any outcome given the market's inherent volatility.
Key Resistance and Support Levels in Focus
Bitcoin’s immediate technical landscape presents clear levels to watch. On the upside, the $91,000-$93,000 zone serves as critical resistance. Reclaiming this area is essential for any continued upward movement toward the $100,000-$105,000 range, which encompasses Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) realized price and the 50-week moving average. These levels have historically acted as vital support; their recovery is necessary to avert potential breakdowns. Onchain data from Glassnode underscores the market’s current fragility, noting that Bitcoin has lost both its 50-week moving average and key cost-basis support. This structure mirrors conditions in the first quarter of 2022 after previous all-time highs, when the market weakened amid fading demand. Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain report warns that if current dynamics persist—with elevated realized losses and STH loss ratios collapsing to 0.07x—the market could see further weakness, raising the risk of a breakdown below the True Market Mean near $81,000.
Broader Market Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Beyond technical levels, broader macroeconomic and onchain factors are shaping Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. As reported by Cointelegraph, uncertainty around interest rate policy, inflation expectations, and stress in BTC derivatives are restraining forces on any sustained push higher. Additionally, mining data has presented a mixed signals; while some metrics appear bearish, they may paradoxically encourage spot-driven rallies if institutional or long-term investor demand picks up. Glassnode’s analysis highlights "fading liquidity and demand" as central concerns, with realized loss ratios at depressed levels suggesting limited new capital inflow. This environment echoes the Q1 2022 period, where similar onchain weakness preceded extended consolidation phases.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Volatility with Key Metrics
Bitcoin’s pre-Thanksgiving rally offers a compelling narrative against its bearish seasonal history, but sustainability remains the critical question. The convergence of technical resistance near $91,000-$93,000 and fragile onchain fundamentals suggests that traders should monitor two key areas: reclaiming the $100,000-$105,000 zone to invalidate downside risks, and holding above the True Market Mean near $81,000 to prevent further declines. While the prospect of a record Thanksgiving close is tantalizing, readers should focus on confirmed breakouts or breakdowns rather than short-term holiday volatility. Watching STH loss ratios, derivatives market stress, and macroeconomic cues will provide clearer signals for Bitcoin’s direction in the weeks ahead.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.