Ethereum Eyes Breakout as Analysts Watch Fusaka Upgrade: Key Resistance Test Sets Stage for December Catalyst
Introduction: Ethereum at a Technical Crossroads
Ethereum is navigating a critical juncture in its market trajectory, retesting a key resistance level after a recent correction. According to market data and analyst reports from late November 2025, the asset failed to reclaim a major resistance zone, keeping the risk of printing a new low elevated despite a short-term bounce. The focal point for the entire crypto market has now shifted to the impending Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3. Market watchers are drawing parallels to historical performance, suggesting this largest upgrade since The Merge could serve as the catalyst for a significant rally, mirroring the post-Pectra surge witnessed earlier in the year. With analysts highlighting repeated wave patterns, a potential breakout in the ETH/BTC trading pair, and consolidating dominance metrics, the stage is set for a potentially volatile and decisive period for the world's leading smart contract platform.
Technical Analysis: Resistance Rejection and Key Levels to Watch
Ethereum's Battle with Key Resistance
Following a fourth-quarter market correction that also impacted Bitcoin's support levels, Ethereum attempted a recovery in the week of November 22, 2025. Trading data from November 26 showed a daily surge that allowed the cryptocurrency to retest a key resistance level for the first time in nearly a week. However, this attempt was ultimately unsuccessful; after breaking above recent trading ranges over a two-day period, Ethereum failed to reclaim this crucial level.
Analyst Ted Pillows noted in a market commentary that Ethereum had reached a resistance zone and was rejected. He stated that until Ethereum successfully reclaims this level with strong volume, the probability of establishing a new low remains elevated. Conversely, Pillows projected that a decisive break above this zone could pave the way for a rally toward higher resistance. In a related post on X (formerly Twitter) on November 27, he specified that Ethereum had reclaimed the $3,000 support zone. He outlined a scenario where holding this level could lead to a rally towards $3,400, while a failure to hold would risk pushing ETH below the $2,800 zone.
The Fusaka Upgrade: A Potential Paradigm Shift
Understanding the Scope and Significance of Fusaka
Scheduled for implementation on December 3, the Fusaka upgrade represents Ethereum's most significant network update since The Merge transitioned the network to Proof-of-Stake. According to network developers and an October report from investment firm VanEck, the upgrade is specifically designed to address one of the network's most pressing bottlenecks: data availability for rollups.
Rollups, which are secondary frameworks that process transactions off-chain before posting data back to the main Ethereum chain, have become central to Ethereum's scaling strategy. However, their efficiency has been constrained by limitations in how much data can be reliably and cost-effectively made available to the network. By directly tackling this issue, Fusaka aims to enhance the throughput and reduce the costs associated with Layer 2 solutions, potentially unlocking new levels of scalability for the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
Historical Precedent: Lessons from the Pectra Upgrade
Drawing Parallels to Past Performance
The potential market impact of Fusaka is being viewed through the lens of recent history. Analyst Ted Pillows and others have pointed to the Pectra upgrade in May 2025 as a relevant comparison. The Pectra upgrade introduced improvements aimed at increasing transaction capacity, enhancing network efficiency, and reducing systemic stress.
Historical price data indicates that following Pectra's implementation, Ethereum experienced a significant surge in the subsequent week. This initial momentum later culminated in a more substantial rally during the third quarter, ultimately propelling the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high. Based on this timeline and performance pattern, Pillows suggested that if Ethereum replicates its post-Pectra behavior, the asset could surge above major resistance levels in the weeks following Fusaka's deployment.
Wave Pattern Analysis: A Recurring Bullish Signal
Identifying Cyclical Market Structures
Beyond fundamental upgrades, technical analysts are observing specific price patterns that have historically preceded major upward movements. Market analyst Merlijn The Trader stated that Ethereum appears to be repeating a wave structure pattern observed multiple times since the bear market bottom in mid-2022.
The analyst broke down this pattern into three distinct waves:
- Wave 1: Kicked off the cycle.
- Wave 2: Shakes out weak hands (corrective phase).
- Wave 3: Where parabolic price movements typically form.
"This pattern printed three times before. Each time, Ethereum went vertical. Now it’s flashing again," Merlijn The Trader added, noting that Ethereum could be concluding its corrective move and positioning for a rally in the coming weeks.
The ETH/BTC Pair: A Crucious Ratio to Monitor
Assessing Ethereum's Strength Against Bitcoin
Another critical metric under scrutiny is Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the importance of monitoring the ETH/BTC trading pair chart. He observed that Ethereum is currently retesting a multi-month downtrend line resistance against Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe postulated that a successful breakout above this trendline could occur in the coming weeks. "This cycle is far from over," he stated, emphasizing his view that the current market phase represents a temporary consolidation within a larger bullish cycle rather than its conclusion.
Dominance Metrics: Consolidation Before a Potential Surge
Ethereum's Share of the Total Crypto Market
The concept of "Ethereum Dominance," which measures ETH's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap (excluding Bitcoin), is also providing clues about future momentum. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Ethereum dominance continues to occupy an area that previously served as a consolidation zone before its major rally in 2021.
The analyst concluded that if Ethereum dominance maintains itself above these current levels, it would position the cryptocurrency for higher market dominance over time. This suggests that capital could be poised to rotate from smaller altcoins back into Ethereum, reinforcing its leadership role within the digital asset space.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating the Pre-Upgrade Landscape
The convergence of technical, fundamental, and on-chain factors creates a compelling narrative for Ethereum as it approaches the December 3 Fusaka upgrade. Technically, the asset is grappling with key resistance levels whose breach could determine short-term direction. Fundamentally, the Fusaka upgrade presents a tangible improvement to network infrastructure, specifically targeting scalability limitations that have long been a point of contention.
Historically, major Ethereum upgrades have acted as significant price catalysts, as evidenced by the post-Pectra rally. The recurring wave patterns and potential breakout in the ETH/BTC pair further bolster the case for heightened volatility and potential upward momentum.
For professional investors and market watchers, the immediate focus should be on two sequential events: first, whether Ethereum can successfully break and hold above its current resistance zone with strong volume, and second, the successful technical implementation of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3. Following deployment, close attention should be paid to on-chain metrics measuring rollup performance and data availability costs to gauge the upgrade's real-world impact.
While past performance is not indicative of future results, the combination of these factors suggests that Ethereum is entering a period of heightened importance. The outcome will not only influence its own price trajectory but could also set the tone for altcoin markets broadly heading into the new year.