Ethereum Eyes $10K as Key $2,620 Support Holds Firm: A Technical and On-Chain Analysis
Introduction: A Critical Juncture for Ethereum
Ethereum is navigating a pivotal moment in its market cycle, capturing the attention of traders and analysts as it demonstrates resilience at a crucial technical level. Currently trading around $2,900 with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $22 billion, according to data from CoinGecko, the asset presents a complex but promising picture. While it has experienced a 6% decline over the past week, it has managed to post slight gains over the last 24 hours. The focal point for the entire market is whether Ethereum can maintain its footing above a recently established support level and use it as a launchpad for a significant upward move. With some analysts mapping a path toward the $9,000–$10,000 range, the battle between bulls and bears at key technical levels will likely determine the medium-term trajectory.
Ethereum Holds $2,622 Support After Bounce
The recent price action has been defined by Ethereum's ability to hold and bounce from the $2,600 support zone. Analyst Crypto Patel has identified this level as technically significant, noting it marks the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from Ethereum's previous major price move. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential support and resistance areas based on prior trends. The 0.5 level often acts as a psychological and technical midpoint, making its defense critical for maintaining bullish momentum.
Crypto Patel further elaborated that this support level overlaps with a filled fair value gap, adding another layer of technical confirmation to its importance. A fair value gap is a concept used by some traders to identify areas on a chart where price has moved so rapidly that it left an imbalance, which the market often returns to "fill." The convergence of these two technical indicators at the $2,620 region has provided a strong foundation for the recent bounce toward $2,900. The price holding well above this zone suggests that buyers are actively defending this line.
However, the analysis also outlines a clear risk scenario. Crypto Patel stated that if this support structure fails and the price breaks below $2,620, the market could see a deeper correction toward the $2,256–$1,821 range before any sustained rally could begin. His advice to traders during such volatility was succinct: "Big dips = Big accumulation discounts. Stay strategic, not emotional." This highlights the importance of a disciplined approach rather than one driven by fear or greed.
The Formidable $3,000 Resistance Wall
While the support at $2,620 has proven sturdy, Ethereum faces an equally significant challenge on the upside. The price zone between $2,950 and $3,000 has acted as a formidable resistance barrier. Market analyst Ted pointed out that Ethereum has faced repeated rejection near this level, stating, "Until Ethereum reclaims this level, the chances of a new low are high." This area has rejected multiple breakout attempts over the past month, establishing itself as a key battleground that bulls must conquer.
The significance of the $3,000 level is not arbitrary; it played a crucial role in previous market cycles, often serving as a launching pad for major rallies once convincingly breached. Analyst Ted added that a clean break above $3,000, accompanied by strong trading volume, could invalidate the bearish short-term structure and open the door for a move toward the next significant resistance at $3,400. For now, this resistance zone remains the primary hurdle separating Ethereum from a test of higher price levels.
MVRV Z-Score Nears Historically Significant Buy Zone
Beyond pure price action, on-chain metrics provide a deeper look into market cycles and potential turning points. The MVRV Z-Score is one such metric that compares Ethereum's market value (its current price) to its realized value (an on-chain cost basis model). This helps determine whether an asset is trading above or below its "fair value" based on the historical price at which coins were last moved.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score is currently at 0.29. He provided historical context, noting that since 2016, each time the MVRV Z-Score fell below zero, it signaled an accumulation phase that was subsequently followed by a significant price recovery. This pattern was observed in late 2018, early 2020, mid-2022, and early 2023.
While the current Z-Score of 0.29 has not yet dropped into negative territory—which has marked some of the best long-term entry opportunities in Ethereum's history—its proximity to this range is noteworthy. It suggests that from an on-chain valuation perspective, Ethereum is approaching a zone that has historically attracted long-term investors andaccumulators. This does not guarantee an immediate price surge, but it provides a data-backed framework suggesting that risk-reward for long-term holders may be becoming more favorable.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Key Levels in a High-Stakes Market
Ethereum finds itself at a technical crossroads. The successful defense of the $2,620 support level, reinforced by Fibonacci principles and fair value gaps, has provided bulls with a solid foundation. This has allowed for a rebound toward $2,900 and kept ambitious long-term targets like $9,000–$10,000 within the realm of possibility—provided the current market structure remains intact.
However, the path forward is not without obstacles. The persistent resistance at the $3,000 level represents a critical line in the sand. A decisive breakout above this zone with high volume is likely necessary to shift short-term momentum firmly in favor of the bulls and pave the way for a test of $3,400. Conversely, failure to breach this resistance increases the risk of further consolidation or a retest of lower supports.
The on-chain perspective offered by the MVRV Z-Score adds another dimension to the analysis. It indicates that while Ethereum is not yet in the deep-value territory seen at major cycle bottoms, it is edging closer to a historically significant accumulation range.
For market participants, the strategy is clear: monitor these key levels closely. A sustained hold above $2,620 coupled with a decisive break above $3,000 would be strong technical confirmations of continued bullish momentum. On the other hand, a breakdown below $2,620 would signal weakness and could trigger a move toward lower support zones. In this high-stakes environment, combining technical level analysis with on-chain data provides a more robust framework for navigating the market's next major move.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The content is based on publicly available data and analyst commentary. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.