Analysts Spot Signs of Altcoin Rebound as November Approaches: A Deep Dive into the Data

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An Engaging Introduction Summarizing the Most Important Developments

The cryptocurrency market is showing tentative signs of a shift as November nears. After a period of sharp declines throughout October, driven by widespread deleveraging in the derivatives market, analysts are identifying key technical indicators that suggest altcoins may be forming a bottom. The dominant narrative of fear, reflected in a Fear and Greed Index reading of 29 at the end of October, is now being challenged by data pointing to potential stabilization. Charts like OTHERS/BTC are entering what experts call a "Stabilization" phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for altcoin market dominance has hit historically oversold levels. This confluence of factors is leading some market observers to anticipate a short-term rebound, with a cautious eye on whether this could evolve into a full-fledged altcoin season.

The October Deleveraging Event and Its Aftermath

Since mid-October, many altcoins have experienced sharp declines due to widespread deleveraging in the derivatives market. This event, which included a significant liquidation event on October 11, triggered a wave of fear that has persisted for three consecutive weeks. The market's Fear and Greed Index standing at 29 at the end of October is a direct reflection of this persistent investor anxiety. This sentiment has caused investors to hesitate, contributing to the downward pressure on altcoin prices. However, within this negative price action, a potentially positive development has emerged. Analysts note that most altcoins have now formed stable price ranges, without setting new lower lows. This price consolidation is often a prerequisite for a market bottom and a potential reversal, as it indicates that selling pressure may be exhausting itself.

The OTHERS/BTC Chart: Entering the "Stabilization" Zone

A primary piece of evidence supporting the stabilization thesis comes from the OTHERS/BTC chart. This chart, which represents the value of all altcoins excluding the top 10, compared to Bitcoin, is closely watched by institutional-level analysts. According to the analyst account Altcoin Vector, which is known for reports from Swissblock, the OTHERS/BTC chart dropped sharply from above 0.14 in September to below 0.12 in October. The critical development is that this chart has now shifted into what Altcoin Vector labels a "Stabilization" phase. This indicates that prices are starting to fluctuate within a stable range rather than in a consistent downtrend. As an illustrative example, the price action of WIF/USD was noted to show a reaction closely aligned with this broader trend.

The implication of this stabilization is cautiously optimistic. Altcoin Vector noted, “If the stabilization zone holds as support, we could see short-term alt rallies: not an alt season, but relief moves that help release downside pressure.” This perspective tempers expectations, forecasting not a massive bull run but rather a tactical rebound that could provide some recovery from October's losses.

Historical Parallels: Echoes of Q4 2016 and Q1 2020

While some analysts advocate for caution, others draw upon historical data to present a more bullish long-term case. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund and a macroeconomic analyst, has highlighted the OTHERS/BTC chart as one of the most valuable in today's market. His analysis suggests that altcoins are currently undervalued at levels comparable to previous significant market bottoms, specifically Q4 2016 and Q1 2020.

These historical periods are pivotal in cryptocurrency history. The Q4 2016 bottom preceded the explosive altcoin season of 2017, during which assets like Ethereum and numerous other altcoins saw gains in the hundreds or even thousands of percent. Similarly, the Q1 2020 bottom, which occurred amid the initial panic of the COVID-19 pandemic, laid the foundation for the full-scale bull run that unfolded throughout 2020 and 2021. The parallel being drawn is that from periods of extreme undervaluation and negative sentiment, the most powerful rallies have historically been born.

The Oversold RSI Signal: A Historically Unprecedented Reading

Adding another layer to the bullish argument is analysis focused on momentum indicators. Analyst Javon Marks highlighted the RSI indicator of the “Others Dominance” chart (OTHERS.D), which measures the market share of non-top-10 altcoins relative to the total crypto market cap. Marks pointed out that for the first time in history, OTHERS.D has entered an extremely oversold zone—the deepest oversold level ever recorded on the monthly RSI.

Explaining the significance of this, Marks stated, “When a market is oversold, it can mean that prices have fallen ‘too far,’ that seller pressure is exhausted, and that a bounce higher or a reversal could be nearing.” An RSI reading this low suggests that the selling has been overextended and that any positive catalyst could trigger a sharp reversion to the mean. This technical signal aligns with the observations of other prominent analysts, such as Ted, who has predicted a “beautiful bull market” based on similar data points.

Cautious Optimism Amid Lingering Market Fear

Despite these positive technical signals, it is crucial to balance optimism with current market realities. The overall sentiment remains cautious. The Altcoin Season Index, a metric that tracks whether at least 75% of the top 50 coins are outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period, remains below 50. This indicates that conditions for a true "altcoin season" are not yet present.

Furthermore, fear continues to linger among investors despite macroeconomic shifts, such as the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates. This creates a very different environment compared to past cycles where rate cuts often coincided with robust risk-on sentiment. The current landscape is one of contradiction: promising technical setups set against a backdrop of persistent investor apprehension.

Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Potential Shifts in November

In summary, the analytical consensus points toward a potential inflection point for altcoins as November approaches. The key takeaways are the formation of a stabilization zone on the OTHERS/BTC chart and historically oversold conditions on key momentum indicators. These factors suggest that the intense downside pressure witnessed in October may be abating.

For readers and market participants, this signals a period requiring heightened vigilance. The immediate expectation from several analysts is not for an explosive altcoin season but for short-term relief rallies. Investors should watch for whether the identified stabilization zone can indeed hold as support. A break below this zone would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis, while a successful bounce could confirm the beginning of a rebound phase.

The broader market insight is that current valuations are drawing comparisons to historic bottoms, which could present long-term opportunities. However, given the lingering fear and cautious index readings, any recovery is likely to be measured initially. The coming weeks will be critical in determining if these technical signs of life translate into sustained momentum or if they are merely a pause in a longer bearish trend. As always, verification of on-chain data and broader macroeconomic developments will be essential for confirming any trend change.