Hyperliquid’s Rally Stalls as TD Sequential Signals Sell at $48.30: On-Chain Catalysts Clash With Technical Warnings
Introduction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) is facing a pivotal moment as its recent price rally shows signs of cooling. Trading at $48.30, down 2.8% over the past 24 hours, the token finds itself at a technical crossroads. The TD Sequential indicator, a tool designed to identify trend exhaustion, has flashed a sell signal, hinting at potential short-term weakness. Despite this cautionary signal, the token remains up 33% over the week and 6.4% over the past month, holding approximately 20% below its all-time high of $59.3 set on September 18. The market is balancing between strong on-chain developments—such as the HIP-3 upgrade and new exchange listings—and technical indicators suggesting a pause may be due.
Market Activity Shows Signs of Cooling
Market data reveals a slight easing in activity following a period of aggressive buying. Hyperliquid’s 24-hour trading volume dropped to $583.2 million, down 8.3% from the previous day. Derivatives volume, however, saw a marginal increase of 0.44% to $2.73 billion, while open interest slipped 0.04% to $1.93 billion.
This mixed reading suggests the market is entering a more balanced phase. Traders appear to be closing old positions while others open new ones, reflecting uncertainty about the token’s near-term direction. The decline in spot trading volume aligns with the broader sentiment of caution, as investors weigh technical warnings against strong fundamental catalysts.
TD Sequential Indicator Flags Potential Pullback
A key development contributing to the current market sentiment is the TD Sequential sell signal highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez in an October 28 post on X. The tool, which identifies potential trend exhaustion points, often signals brief declines following powerful rallies.
According to Martinez, the current reading may indicate that HYPE is due for a short pause or a mild correction before attempting to climb higher again. This is consistent with the tool’s historical behavior, which tends to flag temporary pullbacks rather than prolonged downtrends in strongly bullish environments.
On-Chain Catalysts Keep Long-Term Outlook Bullish
While technical indicators suggest short-term caution, Hyperliquid’s underlying fundamentals remain robust. The HIP-3 Mainnet upgrade, which went live on October 13, introduced permissionless perpetual markets, allowing anyone staking 500,000 HYPE to create new trading pairs.
In less than two weeks since the upgrade went live, users have locked over 1 million HYPE and driven an additional $180 million in daily volume. This demonstrates strong community engagement and utility growth, providing a solid foundation for long-term optimism.
Further catalysts are also in play. Hyperliquid’s USDH stablecoin has been gaining traction, Robinhood EU recently added HYPE to its listings, and Bybit is set to open HYPE/USDT perpetuals on November 8. These developments are expected to attract new traders and liquidity, potentially supporting a move back toward the $55–$60 range by mid-November.
Technical Analysis: Resistance and Support Levels in Focus
Hyperliquid’s price action is currently testing resistance between $47 and $49 after touching the upper Bollinger Band. Key technical indicators present a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture:
- The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is slightly bearish.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 60, indicating neutral momentum.
- All major moving averages (10-day to 200-day) remain in buy territory, signaling a solid underlying uptrend.
Immediate resistance lies between $47.60 and $49.00, while support is situated between $39.90 (20-day Simple Moving Average) and $32.20. A failure to hold above $44 could trigger a pullback toward $40, whereas a sustained close above $50.60 would confirm bullish continuation toward $55.
Strategic Conclusion: Balancing Short-Term Caution with Long-Term Optimism
Hyperliquid’s current position reflects a classic tension between technical indicators and fundamental drivers. The TD Sequential sell signal at $48.30 suggests that short-term traders should exercise caution, as a pullback or consolidation phase appears likely. However, the token’s strong on-chain metrics and upcoming catalysts provide compelling reasons for long-term investors to maintain confidence.
For readers monitoring Hyperliquid’s trajectory, key levels to watch include the $44 support and the $50.60 resistance. A break above or below these thresholds will likely dictate the token’s near-term direction. Additionally, developments such as the Bybit perpetuals launch on November 8 and ongoing adoption of the HIP-3 upgrade will serve as critical barometers for sustained momentum.
In broader market terms, Hyperliquid’s ability to balance technical corrections with robust fundamentals underscores its maturation within the decentralized exchange landscape. As the project continues to innovate and expand its ecosystem, it remains a token to watch for both tactical traders and strategic holders.