NHL Partners with Kalshi and Polymarket in Landmark Prediction Market Deal: A New Era for Sports Betting and Crypto
Introduction: The NHL’s Historic Move into Prediction Markets
The National Hockey League (NHL) has made a groundbreaking move by becoming the first major U.S. professional sports league to partner with prediction market platforms. In a landmark deal announced on October 22, the NHL entered into multiyear licensing agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the largest players in the rapidly growing prediction market space. This partnership grants both platforms the right to use official NHL trademarks, including the league logo, team names, and terms like “Stanley Cup,” marking a significant shift in how sports leagues engage with emerging betting technologies.
The agreements position prediction markets—often described as “licensed betting markets”—as legitimate competitors to traditional sportsbooks. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the NHL’s decision reflects a strategic effort to tap into the tech-savvy user base of prediction markets while navigating the complex regulatory landscape that governs sports betting in the United States. With prediction markets operating under federal oversight via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), this partnership could reshape how fans interact with sports and betting.
What Are Prediction Markets and How Do They Work?
Prediction markets are platforms where users can trade event contracts that function similarly to traditional sports bets. Unlike conventional sportsbooks, which are regulated at the state level, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC oversight. This federal licensing allows them to offer sports event contracts in all 50 states, including jurisdictions where standard sports betting is restricted.
Kalshi, as a federally licensed exchange, has capitalized on this regulatory advantage to expand its user base. Polymarket, meanwhile, is in the late stages of relaunching its U.S. operations after previously halting services for American users in 2022 as part of a settlement with the CFTC. Both platforms enable users to buy and sell contracts tied to specific outcomes, such as game results or championship winners, with payouts determined by the accuracy of their predictions.
The NHL’s Strategic Shift: Embracing Innovation
Keith Wachtel, president of NHL business, emphasized the league’s forward-thinking approach in his statement: “Prediction markets are here to stay.” By partnering with Kalshi and Polymarket, the NHL aims to expand its fan base to include the technologically inclined users who frequent these platforms. At the same time, Wachtel noted that traditional sportsbooks remain “important partners” for the league, underscoring the NHL’s balanced strategy.
This move represents a significant departure from the league’s historical stance on intellectual property. In the past, the NHL and other major sports leagues have aggressively protected their trademarks from unauthorized use. For example, before this deal, Kalshi avoided using terms like “NFL” or “Super Bowl,” opting instead for generic descriptors like “Pro football champion.” The licensing agreements remove these constraints, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to leverage official branding to attract users.
Market Dynamics: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the prediction market landscape, accounting for 46.6% and 52.1% of market share, respectively, as of last week. Their combined quarterly volumes tell a compelling story of growth and adoption. According to a Dune dashboard by user dunedata, Kalshi’s volume surged from $1.9 billion in the second quarter to $4.5 billion in the third quarter, while Polymarket’s volume increased from $3.2 billion to $3.7 billion during the same period.
Together, the two platforms recorded $8.2 billion in volume for the previous quarter—a 61% increase over the second quarter’s results. This explosive growth highlights the rising popularity of prediction markets and their ability to capture market share from traditional operators.
Kalshi’s recent success can be partly attributed to its September 29 launch of a product similar to same-game parlays, which allow users to combine multiple wagers into a single bet. This innovation coincided with brokerage Robinhood Markets reporting surging volumes in sports contracts. Meanwhile, Polymarket has secured a $2 billion investment commitment from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, signaling strong institutional confidence in its planned U.S. relaunch.
Regulatory Challenges and Opportunities
The incursion of prediction markets into sports betting has not been without controversy. State regulators and gambling-industry groups have raised legal challenges, arguing that these platforms operate in a regulatory gray area. However, their federal licensing under the CFTC provides a distinct advantage over state-licensed sportsbooks.
Polymarket’ journey exemplifies these challenges. After settling with the CFTC in 2022, the platform ceased serving U.S. users but has since acquired a small CFTC-regulated exchange, now known as Polymarket US. Regulatory filings indicate that Polymarket US plans to list contracts on sports and elections, positioning it for a comeback in the American market.
Traditional sportsbooks have responded to this competitive threat by exploring their own ventures into prediction markets. DraftKings acquired Railbird Technologies, which owns a CFTC-licensed exchange, while FanDuel partnered with CME Group to develop a trading platform similar to Kalshi’s.
Broader Implications for Sports Leagues and Betting
The NHL’s partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket could serve as a blueprint for other professional leagues looking to engage with prediction markets. By formalizing these relationships, leagues can monetize their intellectual property while appealing to younger, tech-oriented demographics.
The deal also underscores a broader trend of convergence between traditional sports betting and decentralized finance (DeFi). Prediction markets blend elements of both worlds, offering users transparency, accessibility, and the ability to trade contracts like financial instruments. As Keith Wachtel noted, this expansion could help leagues grow their fan bases without alienating existing partners in the gambling industry.
Conclusion: A New Frontier for Sports and Crypto
The NHL’s landmark partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket marks a pivotal moment for both sports leagues and prediction markets. By embracing innovation and navigating regulatory complexities, the league has positioned itself at the forefront of a rapidly evolving industry. The explosive growth in prediction market volumes—coupled with strategic moves by traditional sportsbooks—signals a lasting shift in how betting is conducted and consumed.
For crypto readers and industry observers, this development highlights the increasing relevance of blockchain-based platforms in mainstream finance and entertainment. As prediction markets continue to gain traction, their integration with established sports leagues could pave the way for further adoption of decentralized technologies.
What to Watch Next:
- The performance of Kalshi and Polymarket following the NHL deal.
- Regulatory developments surrounding prediction markets in key states.
- Potential partnerships between other major leagues and prediction platforms.
The intersection of sports, betting, and crypto has never been more dynamic—and this partnership is just the beginning.
Mentioned in this article: Kalshi, Polymarket, NHL, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Robinhood Markets, Flutter Entertainment, Railbird Technologies, CME Group.