Standard Chartered: Bitcoin’s Dip Below $100K May Be Final Buying Opportunity Before Rally
Introduction: A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Investors
In a dramatic shift from his bullish outlook just weeks earlier, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, now states that a decline in Bitcoin below the $100,000 mark appears "inevitable." This forecast, delivered in a client note on October 22, 2025, comes less than three weeks after Kendrick projected an imminent rise to $135,000. The reversal is attributed to the significant market-wide selloff triggered on October 10, fueled by broader macroeconomic fears, particularly escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. Despite this near-term bearish turn, Kendrick offers a silver lining: he believes any drop below $100,000 will be short-lived and could represent the final opportunity for investors to acquire Bitcoin at a six-figure price before the next leg of its long-term rally begins.
From $135K Target to "Inevitable" Dip: Analyzing the Shift in Outlook
Geoffrey Kendrick’s recent commentary marks a notable pivot. In an October 3 research note, he forecasted a new all-time high for Bitcoin, setting a year-end price target of $200,000. At that time, his bullish thesis was built on several factors, including U.S. government shutdown risks, Bitcoin’s correlation to Treasury premiums, and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The cryptocurrency’s price action initially seemed to validate this optimism, reaching a recent high of $126,000 on October 6—closely aligning with his near-term $135,000 target.
However, the landscape shifted decisively on October 10. A sharp, fear-driven selloff across financial markets, linked directly to deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations, abruptly halted Bitcoin's momentum. Kendrick explicitly noted, “Since then, the 10 October US-China trade war fear driven selloff put paid to any further push higher.” This event underscores the continued sensitivity of digital assets to traditional macroeconomic forces. The lack of a significant price bounce in the subsequent days has led to a recalibration of short-term expectations, with the focus shifting from imminent new highs to identifying a stable price base.
Three Signals to Watch for the Market Bottom
While predicting a dip below $100,000, Kendrick is not sounding a long-term alarm. Instead, he identifies three key signals that could indicate Bitcoin is forming a bottom and preparing for its next upward move.
1. Capital Rotation Between Gold and Bitcoin One of the most critical signals Kendrick highlights is the flow of capital between gold and Bitcoin. He observed that a sharp selloff in gold this week coincided with an intraday bounce for Bitcoin. This inverse relationship suggests that investors might be beginning to rotate capital from the traditional safe-haven asset into the digital one. “Further such evidence would be constructive for a bitcoin low being formed,” Kendrick added. This potential rotation is a narrative long championed by Bitcoin proponents, who view it as digital gold, and empirical evidence of it occurring would be a significant bullish indicator.
2. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Shifts The second signal resides with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Kendrick is watching for any signs that the Fed may end its quantitative tightening (QT) cycle. He points to several liquidity measures that have been steadily tightening. A shift in Fed policy toward a more accommodative stance, such as pausing QT or even restarting quantitative easing, would inject liquidity into the global financial system. Historically, such environments have been favorable for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. A Fed-driven liquidity boost could provide the necessary macro backdrop for cryptocurrency markets to resume their climb.
3. The Technical Backstop: The 50-Week Moving Average Although Kendrick stated he does not consider himself a technical analyst, he placed significant emphasis on one key technical level: Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average (MA). He highlighted that since early 2023, when Bitcoin was trading around $25,000, it has consistently held above this long-term trend indicator. The 50-week MA has acted as a reliable support level throughout the current bull cycle. A hold above this line during any forthcoming decline would provide strong technical confirmation that the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Contextualizing the Forecast: Historical Precedents and Macro Drivers
To understand Kendrick's current stance, it's useful to look at the drivers behind his earlier bullishness. The October 3 note identified specific catalysts:
- U.S. Government Shutdown Risks: Political instability often leads investors to seek assets perceived as non-sovereign stores of value.
- Correlation to Treasury Premiums: This suggests a growing integration of Bitcoin into broader financial market analysis.
- Shifting ETF Inflows: The sustained demand through regulated financial products like spot Bitcoin ETFs was seen as a structural driver for price appreciation.
The October 10 crash demonstrates that while Bitcoin matures, it is not yet immune to traditional market shocks. The U.S.-China trade war fears represent exactly the kind of macro uncertainty that causes capital to flee riskier assets across the board. This event serves as a reminder that in the short term, crypto markets remain correlated with broader investor sentiment.
Broader Market Glimpse: Stablecoins and Altcoin Activity
The provided news summaries also offer a snapshot of activity elsewhere in the crypto ecosystem, which often moves in tandem with or in reaction to Bitcoin’s price action.
Stablecoin Growth and Infrastructure Development Stablecoin payment volumes have grown to $19.4 billion year-to-date in 2025. Companies like OwlTing are aiming to capture this expanding market by developing payment infrastructure capable of processing transactions in seconds for fractions of a cent. This growth underscores the increasing utility of crypto assets beyond pure speculation and their role in building a new financial infrastructure. A robust stablecoin ecosystem provides the essential plumbing for DeFi and everyday transactions, which supports long-term adoption narratives for the entire sector.
Dogecoin's Technical Consolidation Simultaneously, major altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) are exhibiting patterns that reflect the market's cautious state. As of the report, DOGE was testing key support at $0.1880 after falling 2% to $0.1910. Trading activity had surged 29% above the weekly average, with price action suggesting potential institutional accumulation. DOGE was trapped in a narrowing consolidation pattern between resistance at $0.1950 and support at $0.1880. Traders were watching for a decisive breakout above or breakdown below these levels, with high volume indicating that such a move could be significant. The performance of major altcoins like Dogecoin often serves as a barometer for overall risk appetite within the crypto market once Bitcoin's direction becomes clearer.
Strategic Conclusion: Navigating Volatility with a Long-Term Lens
Geoffrey Kendrick’s analysis from Standard Chartered presents a clear narrative for investors: short-term pain for long-term gain. The prediction of an "inevitable" drop below $100,000 is framed not as a catastrophe but as a potential final buying opportunity within the context of a longer-term uptrend. His advice is straightforward: investors should treat any such dip as a potential entry point rather than a sign of a structural reversal.
For market participants, the immediate strategy involves vigilant monitoring of Kendrick’s three signals:
- Watch for continued evidence of capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin.
- Stay apprised of Federal Reserve communications regarding quantitative tightening and liquidity measures.
- Keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s price relative to its 50-week moving average as a key technical health indicator.
The broader insight is that Bitcoin’s journey remains subject to both its internal adoption cycles and external macroeconomic winds. The events of October 2025 illustrate this duality perfectly—a rally driven by crypto-specific factors like ETF inflows was halted by a global macro shock. For professional and retail investors alike, success hinges on differentiating between temporary setbacks driven by external events and fundamental shifts in the asset's long-term value proposition. Kendrick’s continued confidence suggests that Standard Chartered views the current weakness as the former. As such, all eyes will be on how quickly Bitcoin can find its base and whether the dip below $100,000 indeed becomes the last chance to buy at that level before the resumed rally toward his $200,000 year-end target.